FOMC Meetings with S.E.P.

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Review_Dec2025_54d0f2cd46.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The FOMC delivered what was widely anticipated to be a "hawkish cut" at the December meeting, lowering the Funds rate range by 25bp to 3.50%-3.75% while portraying a cautious stance on further adjustments in the Statement and Dot Plot. * But with most of the main communications having been well-anticipated - from the subtle shift in forward guidance in the Statement, to the unchanged Dot Plot rate forecast medians - overall the meeting outcome brought some slight dovish surprises and a concomitant market reaction. * Rates markets ended up pricing in two 25bp cuts thorough October 2026 a little more firmly (by about 3bp) than they did before the decision, though a January cut remains a longshot (about 25% implied probability before and after the meeting). * We go through the composition of the Dot Plot (unchanged medians, including 1 cut in each of the next 2 years), the adjustments to the economic projections (slightly lower inflation profile through 2026), and the change in Statement language (eyeing the "extent and timing" of future adjustments) in our review - but none of these were at all surprising. In particular, the paucity of official economic data since the September projections made it unlikely that participants would have a radically changed view of the outlook, and so it proved in the SEP. * That didn't mean there weren't some surprises, but these were marginally dovish leaning on net. * We haven't yet seen any analyst view changes following the meeting, though there's probably not enough new information received that would change opinions on the rate trajectory. * See PDF report for: * MNI View * Market Reaction * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * FOMC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes * MNI Policy - Fed Watch

MNI looks at the outlook for monetary policy after the December rate cut.