POLAND: Zloty Stays Near Multi-Year Highs
Feb-27 07:55
- EUR/PLN hovers just above its lowest levels in seven years as optimism surrounding Ukraine peace talks and generally positive domestic data, against the backdrop of restrictive local monetary policy, have lent support to the zloty. The currency's REER has climbed to the highest levels since 2008, when it printed all-time highs. As a caveat, as we flagged earlier, sentiment towards the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine seems to be at odds with consensus among local political analysts, who have been warning against rushing into a ceasefire agreement with Russia, which could only result in a temporary pause in fighting and give Moscow time to regroup and strike again. Separately, earlier this week Citi Handlowy wrote in an analytical note that the benefits for the Polish economy from the participation of local firms in the reconstruction of Ukraine would likely have a limited macro impact, which they estimate to be less than 0.2pp of additional GDP growth per year.
- Statistics Poland will release final Q4 GDP data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. Preliminary data showed that the economy may have expanded by 3.2% Y/Y in the three months through end-December, missing the consensus forecast of +3.3%. Today's release will provide more details on the structure of growth, with analysts expecting a rebound in consumption.
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MNI: FRANCE JAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 92
Jan-28 07:45
- MNI: FRANCE JAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 92
STIR: Q4 Bank Lending Survey Headlines Today's Calendar
Jan-28 07:43
Euribor futures are little changed through the blues, with US President Trump’s latest tariff jawboning having only a limited reaction overnight. ERZ5 remains below Friday’s pre-January flash PMI levels.
- ECB-dated OIS price 92bps of easing through year-end (vs 88bps at Friday's close), following yesterday’s DeepSeek-induced dovish repricing.
- Easing remains front-loaded, with 74bps of cuts priced through June.
- MNI’s full ECB preview will be released later this morning.
- The ECB’s Q4 Bank Lending Survey headlines today’s regional data calendar at 0900GMT/1000CET. Alongside Wednesday’s money and credit data, this will help inform the ECB’s assessment of how restrictive monetary policy is, following the 100bps of cuts delivered in 2024.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.6 |
| Mar-25 | 2.456 | -46.5 |
| Apr-25 | 2.327 | -59.4 |
| Jun-25 | 2.177 | -74.4 |
| Jul-25 | 2.127 | -79.4 |
| Sep-25 | 2.055 | -86.7 |
| Oct-25 | 2.036 | -88.5 |
| Dec-25 | 2.003 | -91.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
USD: A volatile FX session on Tariffs talks
Jan-28 07:39
- A more volatile session for FX Overnight on the back of Universal Tariff talks from President Trump and his Treasury secretary Bessent.
- The Dollar is in the green across the majors, the Yen is the worst performer in G10, as Yield ticked up, but more a function of the broader Dollar bid.
- Incredibly the USDJPY fell a whopping 217 pips Yesterday, triggered yesterday on the EU Equity Cash open as the Tech sector plummeted, this move has now been fully reversed, as it was trading circa 155.89 Yesterday Morning, and has printed a 155.95 high so far today.
- The Second worst performer in G10 is the Aussie, and support will move back up to the 0.6200 figure in AUDUSD, again more a function of the Dollar.
- Looking ahead most Market Participants will be focussing on the Australian CPI due Tomorrow.
