PLN: Zloty Stays Close To Neutral Levels, Market Mulls '26 Budget & August CPI
EUR/PLN has ticked higher and last deals +15 pips at 4.2670, with market participants assessing this...
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SOFR: Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover In Futures On Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover during Tuesday’s rally.
- Overall positioning swings were fairly modest, with net short cover between SFRZ6 and SFRM7 probably providing the most concentrated positioning move.
| 29-Jul-25 | 28-Jul-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,260,045 | 1,257,760 | +2,285 | Whites | +5,144 |
SFRU5 | 1,319,492 | 1,316,086 | +3,406 | Reds | -7,186 |
SFRZ5 | 1,342,364 | 1,344,267 | -1,903 | Greens | -6,121 |
SFRH6 | 1,055,323 | 1,053,967 | +1,356 | Blues | +6,060 |
SFRM6 | 864,233 | 858,978 | +5,255 |
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SFRU6 | 837,498 | 834,059 | +3,439 |
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SFRZ6 | 923,717 | 929,569 | -5,852 |
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SFRH7 | 708,192 | 718,220 | -10,028 |
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SFRM7 | 696,469 | 702,617 | -6,148 |
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SFRU7 | 526,478 | 526,555 | -77 |
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SFRZ7 | 452,477 | 453,078 | -601 |
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SFRH8 | 332,005 | 331,300 | +705 |
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SFRM8 | 231,225 | 225,590 | +5,635 |
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SFRU8 | 198,932 | 201,092 | -2,160 |
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SFRZ8 | 201,281 | 199,571 | +1,710 |
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SFRH9 | 144,045 | 143,170 | +875 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Bear Threat Remains Present
- In FX, EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows following the sharp sell-off on Monday. Tuesday’s extension resulted in a move through key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1560. A clear break of this EMA would signal a stronger reversal and open 1.1431, 23.6% of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle. Note that medium-term trend indicators continue to highlight an uptrend. The bull trigger is 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
- A bearish set-up in GBPUSD remains intact. The bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1 and highlights a clear break of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach opens 1.3245, the May 19 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3467, the 50-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place. The recovery that started Jul 24 signals the end of the corrective phase between Jul 16 - 24. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 149.18, the Jul 16 high. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. First support is at 147.07, the 20-day EMA.
