PLN: Zloty Respecting Recent Range as CE3 FX Performance Diverge
Sep-25 11:28
EURPLN edged higher to a near 1-month high yesterday, but more broadly, the cross continues to trade within the relatively tight range established following the early April rally. The more dovish profile of the NBP has meant that the Polish zloty has lagged its regional peers in terms of spot gains versus the euro on a year-to-date basis (HUF: +5.3%; CZK: +3.8%; PLN: +0.3%), and the flat path of the zloty since April stands in stark contrast to the forint and koruna, both of which have been among the top performers in EM across that time frame.
- From a technical perspective, the reversal from the May 19 high highlights a potential bearish threat and attention is on key short-term support at 4.2230, the May 15 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and initially expose the 4.2000 handle. However, more notable support is found at 4.1704, the 76.4% retracement level of the Feb 17 – Apr 16 price swing which closely coincides with the start of the April rally. On the upside, key resistance to watch is 4.3102, the Apr 16 high. First resistance to monitor is 4.2761, the Aug 27 high.
Figure 1: EUR/PLN remains contained within narrow range, key technical levels intact
Figure 2: Indexed CE3 spot return vs. EUR (Jan 01=100)
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EGB SYNDICATION: Austria New 7-Year RAGB: Allocations Out
Aug-26 11:19
- E3bln WNG (excl. E250mln issuer retention) of the new 7-year Sep-32 RAGB
- Spread set earlier at MS+30 (guidance was MS+33 area)
- Books closed in excess of EUR 19bn, including EUR 1.8bn JLM interest
- Format: Reg S, Bearer, 144A eligible, CAC
- Settlement: 02 September 2025 (T+5)
- Maturity: 20 September 2032 (7Y)
- Coupon: TBD, Fixed, Ann., ACT/ACT (Long 1st to 20 September 2026)
- ISIN: AT0000A3NY15
- Bookrunners: BofA / DB(DM/B&D) / Erste Group / HSBC / JPM / Raiffeisen Bank International
- DB=DM/B&D. HR 103% vs DBR 1.7 08/15/32
- Hedge deadline 13.40CET / 12.40UKT
From market source
ESM ISSUANCE: USD2bln WNG New 5-Year: Mandate
Aug-26 11:14
- USD2bln WNG of the new 5-year Sep-30 ESM-Bond
- IPT: MS + 42 bps area (equiv. to CT5 + ~7.3bp)
- Issuer: European Stability Mechanism (TICKER: ESM)
- Issuer Ratings: Aaa (stable) (Moody's) / AAA (stable) (S&P) / AAA (stable) (Fitch)/ AAA (stable) (Scope)
- Format: Registered Notes, Reg S (NSS) / 144A
- Ranking: Senior, Unsecured, Unsubordinated
- Settlement: 4 September 2025 (T+6 (TARGET) / T+5 (NY))
- Maturity Date: 4 September 2030 (5Y)
- Coupon: Fixed, Semi-annual, 30/360, Following, Unadjusted
- Bookrunners: CACIB(DM/B&D) / DB / JPM
- Timing: Taking IOIs today, expect to price tomorrow
From market source.
USD3bln of an ESM USD Bond will mature on September 10. That line was a 5-year issue also initially.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Signals Remain Bullish
Aug-26 11:09
- In FX, despite Monday's move down, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. Support at the 50-day EMA remains intact, at 1.1597. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
- A rally last Friday in GBPUSD signals the end of the recent corrective phase - Friday’s reversal pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. An extension higher would refocus attention on the short-term bull trigger at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
- USDJPY traded sharply lower last Friday highlighting a potential bearish threat. The bear trigger has been defined at 146.21, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 145.40, the 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 149.12, 61.8% of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg. Key resistance is far off at 150.92, the Aug 1 high.
