PLN: Zloty On Defensive, Rating Review Eyed
EUR/PLN gains for the fourth consecutive day; the zloty underperformed its CE3 peers this week. The ...
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EQUITY TECHS: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Pullback Considered Corrective
- In the equity space, the dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow retracement is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 6523.63, a 1.764 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Supports to watch are; 6402.75, the 20-day EMA, and 6282.00, the 50-day EMA.
- The trend set-up in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high yesterday. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and signals scope for a climb towards 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Support to watch lies at 5355.64, the 50-day EMA.
SOFR: Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover In Futures On Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover as SOFR futures generally ticked higher on Tuesday. There wasn’t much in the way of meaningful positioning swings in individual contracts and wider packs.
| 19-Aug-25 | 18-Aug-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,198,843 | 1,199,163 | -320 | Whites | -14,744 |
SFRU5 | 1,284,078 | 1,287,739 | -3,661 | Reds | -3,009 |
SFRZ5 | 1,418,700 | 1,424,297 | -5,597 | Greens | +5,013 |
SFRH6 | 1,036,778 | 1,041,944 | -5,166 | Blues | -9,790 |
SFRM6 | 933,170 | 927,706 | +5,464 |
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SFRU6 | 895,297 | 892,416 | +2,881 |
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SFRZ6 | 996,855 | 1,005,589 | -8,734 |
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SFRH7 | 736,485 | 739,105 | -2,620 |
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SFRM7 | 904,136 | 907,303 | -3,167 |
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SFRU7 | 590,855 | 590,453 | +402 |
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SFRZ7 | 599,716 | 596,896 | +2,820 |
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SFRH8 | 354,290 | 349,332 | +4,958 |
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SFRM8 | 275,193 | 273,561 | +1,632 |
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SFRU8 | 207,518 | 205,338 | +2,180 |
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SFRZ8 | 218,526 | 231,675 | -13,149 |
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SFRH9 | 150,758 | 151,211 | -453 |
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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Services Upward Revision Flattered By Rounding, 3-Year Low
Eurozone final July HICP inflation was revised marginally higher, to 2.04% Y/Y (vs 2.02% flash, 1.99% prior). Core inflation was 2.31% Y/Y, up from 2.29% in the flash and 2.31% prior, driven by services being revised up to 3.15% Y/Y (vs 3.13% flash, 3.32% prior).
- This means the 0.1pp services upward revision on a rounded basis (to 3.2% Y/Y) is less material than it may appear on first sight and it compares with 4.0% Y/Y from July 2024. On a rounded basis, services was now "only" the joint lowest since March 2022.
- Non-energy industrial goods inflation was upwardly revised to 0.76% (0.75% flash, 0.52% prior). Some national-level data suggested that this comes amid less material or changing seasonal patterns on summer clothing sales.
- Energy deflation meanwhile was also trimmed to -2.39% Y/Y (-2.46 flash, -2.59 prior).
- Headline excluding tobacco printed 1.97% Y/Y in the final release.
