PLN: Zloty Loses Ground, Cabinet Council Meeting Takes Focus

HSBC note that the U.S.-EU trade deal has “several consequences. For investors, it reduces uncertainty surrounding future EU-U.S. trade and removes the near-term risk of an escalatory tit-for-tat trade war. For businesses, it provides greater clarity, which should support business planning and investment. Nevertheless, a new 15% tariff still provides a higher barrier for EU firms selling into the U.S. than before April 2. A higher tariff could lead firms to shift production to the U.S. and/or could weigh on the profits of EU exporters and European growth more broadly”.

• They think “EUR/USD will struggle to make further gains near term and believe other fundamental drivers such as interest rate differentials will become more influential drivers again. Since April 2, political uncertainty pushed EUR/USD higher compared to rate differentials. The reduction of political uncertainty could reverse this move”.
• More broadly, HSBC write “although Eurozone fundamentals have stabilised, we do not think the ingredients are in place for a sustained rally. With the ECB’s easing cycle complete, U.S. factors will remain the key focus, notably with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the U.S. labour market report on Friday”.

The bid in the broader USD, in light of the EU-U.S. trade deal and with some seemingly eying this week’s Fed decision (no change in rates expected), limits rallies in gold.

• Spot pierced Friday’s lows in Asia-trade, printing $3,324.0/oz before recovering to $3,335/oz last.
• Our technical analyst notes that gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high, although short-term weakness is considered corrective at this stage and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. Resistance at $3,395.1/oz, the Jun 23 high, has recently been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3,451.3/oz, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is $3,282.8/oz, the Jul 9 low.

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the shallow recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $64.77. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. Resistance at $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has recently been cleared. A continuation higher would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.

• WTI Crude up $0.39 or +0.6% at $65.54
• Natural Gas down $0.03 or -0.87% at $3.084
• Gold spot down $2.68 or -0.08% at $3335.16
• Copper down $0.3 or -0.05% at $578.35
• Silver up $0.06 or +0.15% at $38.2145
• Platinum up $1.47 or +0.1% at $1407.4