PLN: Zloty Hits New Multi-Year High, Then Pulls Back

EUR/PLN has ticked away from a multi-year low printed this morning at 4.1573 on the back of hopes for quicker progress in efforts towards a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. The pair last deals +29 pips at 4.1659, with the RSI (27.4) moving into oversold territory, even as the lower Bollinger band remains intact. Renewed losses could open up the 4.15 figure. Bulls look for a rebound towards the 4.20 mark and the 50-EMA at 4.2375.

• Poland's Q4 GDP growth marginally missed the consensus forecast, coming in at +3.2% Y/Y versus +3.3% expected. Although the magnitude of the miss was fairly small, analyst estimates were based on the data for the full 2024 released a couple of weeks back. Pekao write that the reported growth rate for Q4 was took the lowest possible value consistent with a full-year growth of +2.9%.
• Local stocks have extended their impressive bullish run, despite a setback for the local banking sector from the latest ruling of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) exposing lenders to a fresh round of lawsuits. The WIG Index operates 0.5% above neutral levels, with the WIGBANK Index last seen 0.4% higher on the session, both off earlier highs. The WIG20 Index still sits almost 1% higher on the day after briefly piercing the 2,600 mark.
• POLGB curve has bull flattened, with yields last seen 3.0-8.5bp lower across the curve, as 5s outperform. 10-year POLGB/Bund spread holds just above 340bp.
• The NBP will publish current account data for December at 13:00GMT/14:00CET. Consensus looks for an expansion of current-account deficit to EUR1.475bn.