PLN: Zloty Extends Weekly Gain, Dust Settles After NBP Meeting

EUR/PLN trades at 4.2467, 44 pips lower on the day. CE3 currencies outperform their peers in the EMEA basket, save for risk barometer ZAR. Technically, EUR/PLN bears take aim at May 15 low of 4.2230, while bulls see Apr 16/Dec 25 highs of 4.3102/4.3114 as the key layer of resistance.

• Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka said that there is no need to extend electricity price freeze into next year because the 2026 tariff will probably fall below PLN500/MWh, the current price cap. He added that power distribution tariffs hike next year will be similar to this year's.
  • The NBP's forecast is based on the assumption that the price cap will expire at the end of the month and household electricity prices will jump to the current (soon to be revised) tariff of PLN622.8/MWh.
• NBP Governor Glapiński yesterday said that the MPC wants to cut rates further but decisions will depend on macroeconomic conditions. The panel will remain cautious and sensitive to risks, particularly from loose fiscal policy, to avoid policy errors.
  • Glapiński admitted that an extension to the electricity price cap through the end of the year could trigger an interest-rate cut. Parliament convenes on Sep 9 and an extension would have to be passed and signed by the President by end-Sep.
• Deputy Interior Minister Duszczyk said that the Cabinet will discuss a bill linking foreigners' eligibility for the 800+ child benefit scheme with labour force participation.
  • This comes after the President vetoed legislation on an extension of aid to Ukrainian refugees, which granted them access to the child benefit scheme since Russia's full-scale invasion of the country in 2022.
• Fitch is scheduled to review Poland's sovereign credit rating after hours, the first rating agency to do so since the Cabinet unveiled the draft 2026 budget.
• POLGB yields have edged lower across the curve. The WIG Index has added 0.5%; WIG20 is 0.8% better off.