PLN: Zloty Creeps Higher During Local Holiday, Eyes Are On Alaska
The zloty has firmed alongside CE3 peers, becoming the best EMEA performer this morning, with liquidity thinned out by a public holiday in Poland. EUR/PLN trades at 4.2584, around 60 pips lower on the day, with bears eyeing support from May 15 low of 4.2230. Conversely, topside focus remains on Apr 16/Dec 25 highs of 4.3102/4.3114.
- Market participants will be paying close attention to the outcome of Trump-Putin talks in Alaska due to Poland's exposure to the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański told Polsat News yesterday that an end to hostilities would reduce Poland's risk premium and attract foreign investment. On the other hand, the terms and sustainability of a potential future ceasefire will have longer-term relevance.
- Heading into the long weekend, Santander wrote that 'a potential fiasco of talks [between Trump and Putin] could trigger a depreciation of currencies in our region' after hopes for an easing of the situation in Ukraine supported CEE FX this week. Meanwhile, a 'longer pause in Treasury bond issuance helped bring yields lower, as did the positive mood caused by the announcement of Trump-Putin talks.'
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OAT: Futures Blocked
OATU5 3.56K lots blocked at 122.47, would suggest was buyer initiated based on price action. DV01 ~EUR350K.
EQUITIES: Futures Extend Tuesday Weakness
S&P E-Minis are trading in a range, closer to their recent highs. The trend condition remains bullish. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and the latest pullback still appears corrective. Recent gains have exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 14.62 pts or -0.04% at 39663.4 and the TOPIX ended 5.91 pts lower or -0.21% at 2819.4.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 1.222 pts or -0.03% at 3503.777 and the HANG SENG ended 61.07 pts lower or -0.25% at 24529.05.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 15.18 pts or +0.06% at 24074.72, FTSE 100 higher by 11.26 pts or +0.13% at 8949.56, CAC 40 down 10.57 pts or -0.14% at 7755.19 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 19.75 pts or -0.37% at 5334.6.
- Dow Jones mini down 39 pts or -0.09% at 44208, S&P 500 mini down 8.75 pts or -0.14% at 6275.25, NASDAQ mini down 65 pts or -0.28% at 22991.
SONIA OPTIONS: SFIZ5 96.30/96.15/96.00 Put Fly Sold
SFIZ5 96.30/96.15/96.00 put fly 3K sold at 2
