UKRAINE: Zelenskyy Set To Meet w/US Envoy On Rome Visit
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Press Secretary Serhiy Nikiforov has confirmed to reporters that as part of his visit to Rome for the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025, Zelenskyy will meet with US presidential envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. Initially reported on 8 July, the meeting comes as the White House's rhetoric towards Zelenskyy and Ukraine, particularly from President Donald Trump, has become much more positive in recent days amid clear irritation with Russian President Vladimir Putin's perceived stalling on peace talks.
- Talks with Kellogg will be the most senior in-person meeting between US and Ukrainian officials since Zelenskyy met with Trump on the sidelines of the NATO conference in late June. While Trump has confirmed the apparent halt to US provision of weapons to Ukraine has been reversed, Zelenskyy will look to impress on Kellogg (viewed as one of the more amenable US administration figures towards Ukraine) the need for swift provision of arms to defend Ukrainian cities.
- Prior to the Kellogg meeting, Zelenskyy will hold talks with Pope Leo XIV and Italian President Sergio Mattarella. Other senior political figures set to attend the conference include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Polish PM Donald Tusk.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 111-30 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 3: 111-19+ 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 111-14+ High Jun 5 & 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg
- RES 1: 110-20+ 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 110-03+ @ 11:04 BST Jun 9
- SUP 1: 109-26 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 108-25+ 0.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 11 - May 1 price swing
The reversal in Treasury futures from last Thursday’s high, undermines a recent bullish theme. An extension would expose support at 109-26, the May 29 low, where a break would open key support and the bear trigger, at 109-12+, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 111-14+, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jun 5 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.
BONDS: BTP Block trade
BTP Block trade, suggest buyer:
- IKU5 ~1.1k at 121.06.
So far the BTP/Bund spread finds good support at the big Psychological 90bps level.
US TSY OPTIONS: TYQ5 113.00 Calls Lifted
TYQ5 113.00 calls paper paid 0-12 on 5K, representing another round of upside flow after the buying of the TYQ5 112.50 calls we flagged previously.
