UKRAINE: Zelenskyy Floats Referendum On Territorial Concessions
Speaking to reporters in Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that “The Russians want the whole of Donbas — we don’t accept that. I believe that the Ukrainian people will answer this question. Whether in the form of elections or a referendum, the Ukrainian people must have a say.” This comes as the US pressures the Zelenskyy administration to accept a deal that sees Ukraine give up territory in exchange for as-yet-unspecified security guarantees. Report in the FT claims that Trump wants Ukraine to agree to the deal "by Christmas".
- Bloomberg News: "Zelenskiy said the US has discussed calling the area a “free economic zone,” while Russia has opted for a “demilitarized zone.” “The Americans are searching for an appropriate format,” the president said.
- Under the Ukrainian Constitution, any territorial changes must be approved in a nationwide referendum. It is unclear how this would even proceed, given that Ukraine (and its European allies) maintain the legitimate boundaries of the nation extend to their pre-2014 position. If this is the case, a nationwide referendum would not be possible, given Russia's full long-term occupation of Crimea, its almost-total occupation of the Donbas, and partial occupation of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.
- Nevertheless, this marks the furthest point towards acknowledging territorial concessions made by Zelenskyy. While potentially appeasing Trump, such a move could inflame hardliners in Ukraine, vehemently opposed to any concessions. Given the corruption scandal embroiling Zelenskyy's administration (although not the president himself), it could leave Zelenskyy in a vulnerable position.
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G7: Trade/Tariffs Provides Subtext For Two-Day G7 Foreign Ministerial In Canada
Trade and tariffs are likely to provide the subtext of a two-day G7 foreign ministerial meeting that gets underway in southern Ontario, Canada, today. Along with G7 regulars, the foreign ministers of Australia, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, and Ukraine will be in attendance.
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s attendance will be the most high-profile trip by a Trump administration official to Canada since Trump terminated trade talks with Ottawa last month, claiming an advert funded by the provincial government of Ontario was aimed at influencing the outcome of a US Supreme Court case on Trump’s tariffs.
- Canadian Foreign Minister Anand said this week, “The work that Canada is doing is continuing to lead multilaterally in an era of a greater movement to protectionism and unilateralism. And in an era of economic and geopolitical volatility.”
- Anand is likely to use the meeting to improve the working relationship with Rubio. One potential route to renewing trade negotiations could be providing Washington with greater access to Canadian minerals, including rare earths. Recently, US President Donald Trump struck mineral agreements with Australia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan; and pledged to expand rare earth processing operations with Japan and South Korea – moves aimed at addressing China's dominance of the global rare earth supply chain.
- “The expectations are quite low, but avoiding drama and fostering basic common ground on issues like Ukraine and Russia would be helpful” for Canada, an expert told WaPo.
- Ottawa may be bolstered by bullish comments from Trump in the Oval Office yesterday, suggesting that trade deals with India and Switzerland are close, two countries among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariffs.
