EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Zambia: IMF Report

Aug-06 13:42

(ZAMBIN; Caa2pos/SD/-)

“Zambia’s Bonds Sink Most in Emerging Markets After IMF’s Warning” - BBG

  • Zambia 33’s are 44c lower cash price and 53’s seem like 2.6pts according to our bbg feeds.
  • Extract from IMF:

“Zambia’s public debt is assessed as sustainable, but the country remains at high risk of overall and external debt distress. The authorities have reached agreements in principle with most external commercial creditors, and efforts are ongoing to advance bilateral agreements with official bilateral creditors, in line with program parameters and comparability of treatment as defined by the Official Creditors Committee. Although Zambia is at a high risk of debt distress because of near-term breaches of the DSA thresholds, it is expected to reach a moderate risk of external debt distress over the medium term.” – IMF

“The latest CI score, 2.58 (as of April 2025), remains below the 2.69 threshold for medium debt-carrying capacity” - IMF

Historical bullets

RIKSBANK: Implied Probability of August Cut Down to 20% Following Flash CPI

Jul-07 13:37
  • Even though today’s Swedish June flash inflation report saw a 0.4pp rounded upside surprise, analysts had expected volatile components to drive the Y/Y acceleration in CPIF ex-energy. If these components (e.g. package holidays) were the sole drivers of the June increase, it would significantly dampen the hawkish impact of the release.
  • Meanwhile, the Riksbank’s June minutes portrayed an Executive Board that is more concerned about weak demand pulling inflation below target in the medium-term than known upside risks. In this light, Thursday’s May monthly activity data will be important to monitor (despite its volatile/revision-prone nature). Early consensus looks for monthly GDP to fall 0.2% M/M (three estimates ranging between -0.4% M/M and -0.2%; vs 0.4% prior).
  • Markets now assign just a ~20% implied probability of a 25bp Riksbank cut on August 20 according to sell-side estimates. That’s down from a ~50% chance before the inflation data. 2-year SEK swap rates are also up 8.5bps to the highest since June 26.
  • SEK has mostly consolidated this morning’s post-data strength and remains the G10 outperformer. EURSEK is down 0.85%, but initial support at the 20-day EMA of 11.1042 has not been tested. NOKSEK is down 0.9% at 0.9410, off lows of 0.9377.
  • We haven't seen any sellside forecast changes following the inflation data, but there remains a split of opinions on the terminal rate:
    • Handelsbanken continue to expect a cut in August.
    • JP Morgan still see one more cut in September.
    • Danske Bank forecast no more cuts, but note that “we still see some downside risk to our call”. DNB and Nordea also expect no more easing this cycle.

SONIA OPTIONS: Latest Call Flies Buyers

Jul-07 13:35
  • SFIQ5 96.20/96.30/96.40c fly, bought for 1.5 in 15k total.
  • SFIV5 96.10/96.20/96.30c fly, bought for 1.5 in 6k.

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU Update On Trade Talks With U.S.

Jul-07 13:33

EU officials give an update on talks with the U.S. -- on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.