EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Trend Needle Points North

A weaker start for Bunds adds pressure to Euribor futures, with contracts flat to -3.5 as the strip steepens.

• ERZ5 continues to trade at the lowest level seen since late March, while ERZ6 is 2.5 ticks off its September low.
• ECB-dated OIS shows 7-8bp of further easing in the current cycle, with implied rates basing in June ’26.
• Flash Eurozone HICP data is due today. Our tracker is running at +2.29% for headline Y/Y HICP after this morning’s Dutch release, which would provide a marginal upside surprise against the +2.2% BBG survey median.
• Final manufacturing PMI data from the Eurozone and larger regional economies shouldn’t be much of a needle mover, unless there are meaningful revisions to those releases or surprises in the prints from the smaller nations.
• ECBspeak from de Guindos, Kazimir, Kocher and Simkus is also due today, although we shouldn’t expect much of a tone change there, with many of the Governing Council of the view that the ECB is currently in a “good place” when it comes to monetary policy settings.

• RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6628/29 High Sep 24/30 
• PRICE: 0.6609 @ 07:36 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26 
• SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6554. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6628, the Sep 24 high.

• he Dollar was at one point in the green against some of the G10 Currencies Overnight, but the Greenback has pared some its gains heading into the European session as the US Government shuts Down.
• The Yen is the best early performer, extending further gains now, USDJPY tests a new intraday low and has cleared the 50 day EMA that was 147.46.
• Next support is below the 147.00 figure at 146.77 Low Sep 18.
• The Aussie was one of the worst overnight performer, the Risk Tone tilted to the downside may have weighted somewhat, but AUDUSD has now bounced off its earlier to be flat on the day.