ICE EUA FUTURES TECHS: (Z5) Trend Cycle Remains Bearish
Mar-14 13:40
- RES 4: €85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: €84.50 - High Jan 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: €73.69/80.49 - 50-day EMA / High Feb 13
- RES 1: €71.77 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: €71.21 @ 13:30 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: €66.78 - Low Mar 7
- SUP 2: €64.05 - Low Dec 17 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: €61.98 - Low Oct 9 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 4: €59.26 - Low Apr 3 ‘24
The trend outlook in ICE EUA futures is bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. Initial firm resistance to watch is €73.69, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is at $71.77, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open the next key support at €64.05, the Dec 17 ‘24 low.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Large March'25 10Y Put Sale - Unwind
Feb-12 13:39
- -30,000 TYH5 109 puts from 43 to 45 post data, continued unwind of over 100k bought last couple weeks from 18-22. March options expire Feb 21.
US DATA: All Core CPI Categories Come In Higher Than Expected
Feb-12 13:37
The higher-than-expected M/M core / supercore CPI readings reflected stronger pressures in all major sub-categories in January. See table below.
- Notably: Supercore (0.76% vs 0.20% prior) did not reflect the relatively tame OER and rents (0.31% and 0.35% respectively): instead it was well above expected hotels, airfares, and auto insurance in the services categories, with core goods jumping (used vehicles playing a role).
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US TSY FUTURES: Post-CPI Data React
Feb-12 13:35
- Treasury futures extended highs briefly before reversing course - trading lower across the board on higher than expected CPI inflation data.
- The Mar'25 10Y tapped 109-05 high before reversing course to 108-10.5 low (-20), through initial technical support of 108-20.5 (Low Feb 4) and heading towards next support of 108-06 (Low Jan 23).
- Tsy 10Y yield climbs to 4.6187% high, curves off flatter levels: 2s10s +.573 at 25.141.
