US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 112-22+/113-00 20-day EMA / High Sep 24
- PRICE: 112-16 @ 11:05 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: 112-01 50.0% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
- SUP 2: 111-26 Low Aug 26
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
A short-term bear cycle in Treasury futures remains in play. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-10+. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged, at 113-00, the Sep 24 high.
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EUROZONE DATA: Unemployment Rate At 6.2% Lows In July As Revisions Alter Trend
The Eurozone unemployment rate printed at 6.2% in July as expected, a joint series low, but revisions have again altered recent trends. The data have quite often been revised and June saw a fairly typical 0.1pp upward revision to 6.3%, although the +0.2pp to 6.4% in May was more surprising. It leaves a trend of recent improvement but with question marks over the data.
- What had been seen as three months at joint cycle lows of 6.2% through Apr-Jun, tying with 6.2% in Oct-Nov 2024, Eurostat now estimate a latest pattern of 6.3% in Apr, 6.4% in May, 6.3% in Jun and 6.2% in July, tying with 6.2% only in Nov 2024.
- These revisions were largest for the <25 year old category although this has also seen the largest recent improvement, currently at 13.9% in July after 14.3% (initial 14.1) in Jun, 14.5% (initial 14.3) in May and 14.4% (initial 14.3) in Apr. 13.9% is a new series low vs 14.0% in early 2023.
- The >25 year old unemployment rate meanwhile held steady at 5.5% for what is now a seventh consecutive month following upward revisions to 5.4% in Apr-Jun.
- Eurostat doesn’t offer much specific information for these revisions, simply noting that “The data in this News Release can be subject to revisions, caused by updates to the seasonally adjusted series whenever new monthly data are added; the inclusion of the most recent EU-LFS data in the calculation process; update of seasonal adjustment models with complete annual data.”
- We feel the lack of zero-sum revisions rules out seasonal adjustment related adjustments (there has been clear upward move to the revisions), suggesting new data to hand.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 113-06 2.236 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 113-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 112-28+ 2.000 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 112-20+ High Aug 28
- PRICE: 112-11+ @ 10:31 BST Sep 1
- SUP 1: 111-31 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 111-18+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
The trend outlook in Treasury futures remains bullish. Last week’s gains delivered a print above 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the bull cycle and paves the way for a climb towards the 113-00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. First support to watch is 111-31, the 20-day EMA.
