EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Testing Support

• Pill's speech says that "The main message is: monetary policy should be resolutely focused on price stability, even as institutional arrangements evolve, economic structure changes and uncertainty rises."
• There's not much here with near-term implications.

Gilts have generally taken cues from wider core global FI markets today.

• Futures +29 at 90.83 vs. session highs of 90.93.
• Bears remain in technical control, initial support and resistance located at 90.26 & 91.08, both remain untouched.
• 10-Year yields are back to the middle of the 4.60-4.80% multi-week closing range.
• Curve twist flattens.
• A reminder that the ONS has detected errors in the PSNB data, meaning that the UK’s fiscal situation is marginally less downbeat than was previously envisaged, which has probably driven some of the gilt curve flattening (although the discrepancies are quite minor in the grander scheme of things).
• BoE chief economist Pill to speak shortly, see prior STIR bullet for greater detail on that.

• BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill is due to speak at the Maxwell Fry Annual Lecture in Birmingham today.
• The text will be released here: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/october/huw-pill-speech-at-the-maxwell-fry-annual-lecture
• And the full event including the Q&A will be available to watch here: https://bham-ac-uk.zoom.us/j/89375184060?pwd=HgGUAiYj9vhDLX5mbmFixdlBZ2hasT.1
• Even if Pill discusses monetary policy we don't expect it to be hugely market moving. He is known to be on the hawkish side and has argued in favour of a skip to the quarterly cutting pattern (and indeed backed this up with his August vote).
• Of course, if he entertains the prospect of a Q4 cut with only 4.8bp priced by year-end this would be a surprise to the market. But anything on the hawkish side is unlikely to drive things here.