EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Support Still Intact

GBP STIRs little changed this morning, with core global FI benchmarks trading a little above yesterday’s lows into the gilt open following selling pressure during the early rounds of European & London trade.

• SONIA futures flat to -0.5. SFIZ5 1.0 off September/October lows, SFIZ6 ~5.0 off its September base.
• BoE-dated OIS still pricing ~5bp of easing through year-end, with the next 25bp cut not fully priced until the end of the April MPC.
• We continue to suggest that markets are underpricing the odds of easing in Q4.
• BoE Governor Bailey spoke on AI and investment late on Monday, steering clear of pure monetary policy matters.
• Little of note on the UK speaker & data calendar today.

August manufacturing orders (-0.8% M/M vs 1.2% consensus) were driven by weak developments in the foreign sector which more than outweighed some recovery in domestic orders. A minor July revision (now -2.7% from -2.9% unrevised) does not move the needle.

• "When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were 3.3% lower than in the previous month. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders in the period from June 2025 to August 2025 were 2.3% lower than in the previous three months; when large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were down 2.0%.", Destatis comments.
• On headline drivers: "The negative development of new orders in manufacturing in August 2025 was primarily attributable to the substantial decline in new orders in the automotive industry (-6.4% on the previous month after seasonal and calendar adjustment). In addition, the declines witnessed in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (-11.5%) and in the pharmaceutical industry (-13.5%) negatively impacted the overall result"
• Recent declines in headline German factory orders highlight the exposure of the series to the foreign sector, which had been strong until May but since then has deteriorated notably (see chart below). On an index level, the 'core' factory orders series stands only marginally above cycle lows in August.
• Manufacturing turnover data meanwhile (released with the orders series) sends a weak signal for tomorrow's IP (consensus is for -1.0% M/M in IP, so that is already pessimistic).

• RES 4: 6831.38 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 6819.25 1.500 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 6800.00 Round number resistance and the Oct 3 high 
• PRICE: 6778.75 @ 07:26 BST Oct 7
• SUP 1: 6694.17 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6624.25 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 3: 6575.48 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5 

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6812.29, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 6694.17. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 6575.48.