US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Spills to New Lows
- RES 4: 114-02 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-29 High Oct 22
- RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28
- RES 1: 113-02 Intraday high
- PRICE: 112-10+ @ 16:49 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 112-09+ Low Nov 5
- SUP 2: 112-08+ 38.2% retracement of May - Oct Upleg
- SUP 3: 112-06 Low Sep 25 and a reversal trigger & 100-dma
- SUP 4: 111-30+ Trendline support drawn from the May 22 low
A short-term bearish threat in Treasuries built further Wednesday, with prices nearing the reversal trigger at 112-06. The weakness was triggered by the clean break below the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-26+, and highlights potential for a deeper retracement near-term. The contract needs to trade above 113-18+, the Oct 28 high to signal a possible bullish reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 114-02, the Oct 17 high.
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EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
- RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.1919/23 High Sep 17 / 2.0 proj of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing
- RES 1: 1.1820 High Sep 23
- PRICE: 1.1710 @ 16:26 BST Oct 6
- SUP 1: 1.1690/46 50-day EMA / Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
- SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
- SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.
EURUSD is in consolidation mode and continues to trade above its recent lows. The primary trend direction is up and recent weakness appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.1690, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a clear resumption of gains would open 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection.
OPTIONS: Largely Upside Lean In Euribor, Plenty Of Condors
Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- DUX5 107.10/107.00ps, sold at 6.25 in 3k (ref 107.03)
- ERH6 98.00/06/12/25 broken call condor with, the ERH6 98.25/43 call spread paper paid 0.5 for both on 1.75K
- ERH6/ERM6 98.12 put calendar 5K given at 1.5, selling the M6 to buy the H6.
- ERM6 98.375/98.50/98.75/98.875 call condor, bought for 1 in 10k
- ERM6 98.50/98.625/98.75/98.875c condor, bought for half in 10k (ref 98.07)
- 2RZ5 97.75/98.00cs vs 3RZ5 97.62/97.87cs, bought the 2yr for 2.75 in 2.5k
- SFIZ5 96.05/95.90ps 1x2, bought for 0.25 in 2k
- SFIH6 96.55/96.65cs, bought for 1 in 7.78k
- SFIF6 96.20/96.10ps vs 0NF6 96.30/96.20ps, bought the front for half in 5k
BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Increasing Shorts In Schatz
We've just published our latest Europe Pi bond futures positioning analysis - Download Full Document Here
- European bond futures have mostly moved off the shortest-leaning/least long structural positioning seen in August and early September over the past week or two, with longs set and shorts covered over the course of last week.
- However positioning is very mixed across contracts, and some (Schatz, Gilt) have been going against the grain.
