BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 174.50 High Sep 19 
• PRICE: 173.98 @ 07:15 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 173.01/171.83 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last Thursday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.01, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont) 
• RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.73 @ Close Sep 19
• SUP 1: 119.06/118.36 Low Sep 4 / 3         
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 117.70 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing  
• SUP 4: 117.36 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 12 - 14 price swing 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The strong rally that started Sep 3 reinforces this theme and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Aug 5 - Sep 3. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support has been defined at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.

Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:

• Fitch upgraded Italy to BBB+; Outlook Stable
• Moody's affirmed Poland at A2; Outlook changed to Negative from Stable
• S&P affirmed Ireland at AA; Outlook Positive
• Morningstar DBRS upgraded Cyprus to A, Stable Trend
• Morningstar DBRS downgraded France to AA, Trend Changed to Stable
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed Norway at AAA, Stable Trend
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed Finland at AA (high), Stable Trend
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed the United States of America at AAA, Stable Trend
• Scope Ratings affirmed the Czech Republic at AA-; Outlook Stable