US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Remains Above Support For Now
Sep-24 10:22
- RES 4: 114-12 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 112-29+ @ 11:12 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 112-20+/112-15+ Low Sep 22 / High Aug 5 and 14
- SUP 2: 112-10 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
The latest pullback in Treasury futures appears corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112.10 and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Data, Home Sales, Fed Speakers
Aug-25 10:22
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/25 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-0.10, -0.11)
- 08/25 1000 New Home Sales (627K, 630K), MoM (0.6%, 0.5%)
- 08/25 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (0.9, -1.7)
- 08/25 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W & $73B 26W bill auctions
- 08/25 1515 Dallas Fed Logan Bank of Mexico conf (text, Q&A)
- 08/25 1915 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks Bank of Mexico (text, Q&A)
- 08/25 Building Permits (1.354M, --), MoM (-2.8%, --)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
US TSYS: Bear Steeper As Cash Trading Resumes
Aug-25 10:12
- Treasuries trade bear steeper with cash trading back underway after UK closures for the bank holiday.
- Friday’s Powell-enhanced steepening has been further extended, with the front end still broadly consolidating the dovish shift on Powell (albeit quite comfortably off highs) whilst 30s extend losses.
- Cash yields are 1-3.7bp higher, led by 20s and 30s.
- Monitoring monetary policy implications from Powell, 2Y yields are currently at 3.707% vs a post-Powell low of 3.673% and ~3.78% pre-Powell.
- 5s30s at 114.6bps easily sets fresh ytd highs having peaked at 112.9bp on Friday.
- TYU5 trades at 112-01+ (-3) on cumulative volumes already at 375k but with more than half of that seemingly from quarterly roll activity.
- Friday’s post-Powell high of 112-08 didn’t test resistance at a bull trigger of 112-15+ (Aug 5 high). Support is seen at 111-12 (50-day EMA).
- Today’s data is focused on regional Fed surveys and housing whilst President Trump comments are watched more broadly, including a meeting with The President Of Korea at the White House from midday ET. Fedspeak from Logan and Williams comes much later in the session.
- Data: Chicago Fed nat activity Jul (0830ET), New home sales Jul (1000ET), Dallas Fed mfg Aug (1030ET), Building permits revisions Jul F
- Fedspeak: Logan speaks at Banxico panel (1515ET, text + Q&A), NY Fed’s Williams gives keynote remarks at Banxico conference (1915ET, text + Q&A)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $82bn 13-w and $73bn 26-w (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump signs executive orders (1000ET – Axios suggests on ending cashless bail), Trump in bilateral meeting with The President of Korea (1215ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Futures Bull Cycle Still In Play
Aug-25 10:11
- In the equity space, the dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a 1.764 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Support to watch lies at 6298.61, the 50-day EMA.
- The trend set-up in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is bullish and the contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high last week. The recent print above the May and July highs strengthens a bull theme and opens 5575.00, the Mar 3 high (cont) and key resistance. Support to watch lies at 5370.47, the 50-day EMA.
