BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Rally Extends
- RES 4: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 and key resistance / High Jul 30
- RES 1: $66.58 - High Oct 9
- PRICE: $65.59 @ 08:10 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: $60.07 - Low Oct 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $55.91 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
Brent futures traded higher Thursday and this has resulted in a breach of resistance around the 50-day EMA, at $65.12. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery and sights are on $66.58, the Oct 9 high. A move above this price point would expose key resistance at $69.87, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $60.07, the Oct 20 low.
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GILTS: Futures Through Resistance
Gilts rally, playing catch up to the bid in Tsys after UK markets closed yesterday.
- Futures pierce yesterday’s high (91.11), topping out at 91.28, with bulls now looking to the September 11 high (91.82).
- Yields 1.5-3.0bp lower, curve flatter, 2s10s ~5bp off last week’s pullback low, while 5s30s is ~3bp off last week’s base.
- The DMO will come to market with GBP4.75bln of the short 5-year 4.375% Mar-30 gilt this morning.
- We don't think that yesterday's disappointing 30-Year auction will have any impact on this auction and continue to expect strong demand at the offering.
- This is because structural changes and fiscal concerns have a much larger impact on the long-end while the short-end continues to see very strong demand when it comes to primary issuance.
- Elsewhere, the DMO has announced that it will launch a new conventional 31 Jan ’41 gilt via syndication in the week commencing 13 Oct’25, matching our expectations.
- BoE’s Greene will speak on supply shocks and monetary policy this evening (17:30 London).
- SONIA futures now flat to +3.0 given the move further out the curve, with BoE-dated OIS still pricing ~6bp of easing through year-end.
SILVER TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $44.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $45.128 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: $44.533 - 3.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: $44.468 - High Sep 23
- PRICE: $44.158 @ 08:04 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: $41.595 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $39.758- 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20
- SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded higher this week as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $44.533 next, a 3.000 projection of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 45.128, the 3.236 projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $41.595, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
- RES 1: 1.3864 High Sep 12
- PRICE: 1.3853 @ 07:58 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
USDCAD is trading higher this week. A sharp sell-off from the Sep 11 high, resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bull theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.
