BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Rally Extends

Gilts rally, playing catch up to the bid in Tsys after UK markets closed yesterday.

• Futures pierce yesterday’s high (91.11), topping out at 91.28, with bulls now looking to the September 11 high (91.82).
• Yields 1.5-3.0bp lower, curve flatter, 2s10s ~5bp off last week’s pullback low, while 5s30s is ~3bp off last week’s base.
• The DMO will come to market with GBP4.75bln of the short 5-year 4.375% Mar-30 gilt this morning.
• We don't think that yesterday's disappointing 30-Year auction will have any impact on this auction and continue to expect strong demand at the offering.
• This is because structural changes and fiscal concerns have a much larger impact on the long-end while the short-end continues to see very strong demand when it comes to primary issuance.
• Elsewhere, the DMO has announced that it will launch a new conventional 31 Jan ’41 gilt via syndication in the week commencing 13 Oct’25, matching our expectations.
• BoE’s Greene will speak on supply shocks and monetary policy this evening (17:30 London).
• SONIA futures now flat to +3.0 given the move further out the curve, with BoE-dated OIS still pricing ~6bp of easing through year-end.

• RES 4: $44.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $45.128 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: $44.533 - 3.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $44.468 - High Sep 23       
• PRICE: $44.158 @ 08:04 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: $41.595 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $39.758- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20  
• SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded higher this week as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $44.533 next, a 3.000 projection of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards 45.128, the 3.236 projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $41.595, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
• RES 1: 1.3864 High Sep 12 
• PRICE: 1.3853 @ 07:58 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

USDCAD is trading higher this week. A sharp sell-off  from the Sep 11 high,  resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bull theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.