ICE EUA FUTURES TECHS: (Z5) Key Resistance Remains Exposed
May-14 12:50
- RES 4: €78.73 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 30 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: €75.17 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 30 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 2: €74.23 - High Mar 19 and key resistance
- RES 1: €73.82 - Hi May 13
- PRICE: €72.23 @ 13:40 BST May 14
- SUP 1: €68.81 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: €63.61/60.07 - Low Apr 22 / 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: €59.26 - Low Apr 3 ‘24
- SUP 4: €56.76 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 19 price swing
ICE EUA futures are trading closer to their recent highs. A bull cycle remains in play for now. The latest extension undermines a recent bearish theme. Note too that the contract is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Attention is on the next key resistance, at €74.23, the Mar 19 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch lies at €68.81, the 20-day EMA.
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EGBS: Rally In Major Futures Extends; BTPs Eyeing Key Resistance
Apr-14 12:44
Major EGB futures have continued to grind higher through the course of the session, with BTPs narrowing the gap to resistance at 119.07 (April 4 high).
- Currently +88 ticks today at 118.98, clearance of the April 4 high would be a bullish reversal development and expose 119.31, the March 4 low. This would mark a full reversal of the sell-off seen following German Chancellor Merz’s landmark fiscal announcement.
- Friday’s ratings upgrade from S&P (covered in more detail earlier) continues to drive BTP outperformance against EGB peers, with the 10-year BTP/Bund spread now 5.5bps tighter on the session at 118.5bps.
- OAT futures are +57 ticks at 124.50, with the April 7 high at 124.87 presenting initial resistance. The 20-day EMA at 123.24 provides support.
- Yesterday, French finance minister Lombard noted that the Government needs to find E40bln of savings to reach its 2026 deficit target of 4.6% GDP. He also expressed a preference for the government’s high-earner tax to become permanent.
- Although French political risks have taken a backseat since PM Bayrou was able to pass his 2025 budget, the administration remains in a precarious position. The need for further fiscal consolidation in France, alongside fallout from RN Leader Le Pen’s legal troubles, may place stress upon the fragile agreements Bayrou has formed to remain PM.
SONIA: Call spread buyer
Apr-14 12:42
SFIK5 95.95/96.10cs, bought for 3.75 in 4k.
MNI: CANADA FEB WHOLESALE SALES -2.7%; EX-AUTOS +1.0%
Apr-14 12:30
- MNI: CANADA FEB WHOLESALE SALES -2.7%; EX-AUTOS +1.0%
- FEB WHOLESALE INVENTORIES +1.6%: STATISTICS CANADA
- CANADA FEB WHOLESALES EX-PETROLEUM/OILSEED/GRAIN +0.3%
