BUND TECHS: (Z5) Fresh Cycle Low
- RES 4: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 130.07 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 129.73 High Oct 28
- RES 1: 129.40 High Nov 13
- PRICE: 128.85 @ 05:58 GMT Nov 14
- SUP 1: 128.76 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 128.25 Low Oct 7
- SUP 4: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support
A strong sell-off in Bund futures yesterday reinforces the current corrective bearish condition and today’s fresh short-term cycle low, highlights a resumption of the bear leg. A continuation would pave the way for a move towards 128.52, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is seen at 129.40, the Nov 13 high. A clear break of this level would signal a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase.
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BTP TECHS: (Z5) Range Breakout
- RES 4: 121.93 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 121.73 High Jun 13 and a key resistance (cont)
- RES 2: 121.38 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.24 High Oct 14
- PRICE: 121.09 @ Close Oct 14
- SUP 1: 119.90 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 119.07 Low Sep 25
- SUP 3: 118.36 Low Sep 3 and key support
- SUP 4: 118.00 Round number support
BTP futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price is through a key resistance at 120.74, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. The breach also highlights a range breakout. This opens 121.38, a Fibonacci projection point. On the downside, support to watch lies at 119.90, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible short-term reversal.
GILT TECHS: (Z5) Impulsive Rally Strengthens A Bull Theme
- RES 4: 92.72 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 92.37 High Aug 11 (cont)
- RES 2: 92.14 0.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 1: 92.06 High Aug 14
- PRICE: 91.95 @ Close Oct 14
- SUP 1: 91.60/90.90 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction
- SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact following recent strong impulsive gains. Yesterday’s gap higher strengthens current conditions and price has cleared key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The breach opens 92.14 next, a Fibonacci projection. Price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support lies at 90.90, the 20-day EMA.
NORWAY: 2026 Budget Proposal: Key Figures
With the fiscal stance in line with Norges Bank expectations and having an approximately neutral impact on mainland GDP, the market reaction is limited.
- Structural non-oil deficit spending in NOK (current prices): NOK579.4bln vs NOK534.2bln in 2025
- A little above the ~NOK570-573bln estimates we saw from JP Morgan and DNB
- “This includes continued support to Ukraine amounting to NOK 85 billion”
- Structural non-oil deficit spending as a % of Government pension fund assets (fiscal rule stipulates maximum spending of 3% of the GPFG): 2.8% vs 2.7% in 2025
- In line with Norges Bank expectations and the DN report just before 0700BST
- Structural non-oil deficit as a % of mainland GDP: 13.1% vs 12.6% in 2025
- Note this includes support to Ukraine, which totals 1.9% of trend GDP
- Mainland economy fiscal impulse: 0.4pp vs 2.4pp in 2025.
- After accounting for Ukraine support: “Calculations using the KVARTS and NORA macro models indicate that the budget for 2026 will have an approximately neutral effect on activity in the economy next year.”
