US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Finding Support Below The 50-Day EMA
Oct-08 16:01
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 113-00 High Sep 24
- PRICE: 112-21+ @ 16:57 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 112-12+/01 50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 upleg
- SUP 2: 111-26 Low Aug 26
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
Treasuries continue to find support just below the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-12+. The trend structure remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to undermine the trend and this would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high. A break would be bullish.
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FOREX: EURUSD Hovers Below Post-NFP High as French Vote Beckons
Sep-08 15:59
- Weaker-than-expected US employment data continues to keep the risks tilted towards the weaker dollar narrative, emphasised by the USD index spending today’s US session consolidating close to six-week lows. Strength in G10 has been led by the likes of AUD and NZD, while political risks in France may have contained the EURUSD price action somewhat.
- EURUSD spot currently resides just below the 1.1750 mark, threatening a daily close above the prior resistance point of 1.1743, the Aug 22 high. A clear break of this hurdle would mark a short-term bullish development and signal scope for an extension towards 1.1829, the Jul 01 high and bull trigger.
- French PM Francois Bayrou told the French National Assembly that lawmakers can vote 'according to their conscience' today in a no-confidence vote that is expected to result in Bayrou being ousted. Betting markets lean slightly towards snap legislative elections, despite Macron ruling the option out and the risk of further gains for the far-right National Rally. Defence Minister Sbastien Lecornu is favoured to replace Bayrou if elections are not called.
US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Nov'25/Dec'25 10Y Ratio Call Spread
Sep-08 15:59
- Tsy ratio call spread prints at 1148:33ET, CME reports Nov'25 leg bought over
- 9,250 TYX5 113.5 calls, 57 vs.
- 13,700 TYZ5 116 calls, 24 vs.
- 1,880 TYZ5 113-19
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Sep-08 15:59
- EUR/USD: Sep10 $1.1600(E1.0bln); Sep11 $1.1635-50(E3.4bln), $1.1740-50(E1.4bln), $1.1825(E1.5bln), $1.1850-65(E1.0bln); Sep12 $1.1600(E1.0bln), $1.1670-75(E1.2bln), $1.1700(E2.3bln), $1.1800(E1.1bln), $1.1850(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Sep10 Y146.40-50($1.4bln); Sep11 Y145.75($1.1bln), Y147.10-20($1.2bln), Y150.00($1.1bln); Sep12 Y147.40-50($1.8bln)
- AUD/USD: Sep10 $0.6535-50(A$1.2bln)
