ICE EUA FUTURES TECHS: (Z5) Double Top Reversal Patten
- RES 4: €88.55 - 1.382 proj of the Dec 17 - Jan 3 - Jan 9 price swing
- RES 3: €86.75 - 1.236 proj of the Dec 17 - Jan 3 - Jan 9 price swing
- RES 2 €85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: €84.50 - High Jan 30 and the bull trigger.
- PRICE: €78.67 @ 13:32 GMT Feb 14
- SUP 1: €77.25 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: €76.76 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: €71.55 - Low Sep 9
- SUP 4: €67.36 - Low Dec 23
A bull cycle in ICE EUA futures remains intact, however, this week’s move lower highlights a corrective cycle. A double top pattern on the daily chart confirms a short-term top. Attention is on the next key support at €76.76, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and bull trigger is at €84.50, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of it would resume the uptrend.
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US DATA: CPI Core & Supercore Latest Trends
Core CPI 3-mth run rate lowest since Sept but 6-mth highest since June.
Core CPI (SA)
- % M/M: 0.225 in Dec '24 after 0.308 in Nov'24
- % 3mth ar: 3.3 in Dec '24 after 3.7 in Nov'24
- % 6mth ar: 3.2 in Dec '24 after 2.9 in Nov'24
CPI Core Services Non-Housing (SA)
- % M/M: 0.205 in Dec '24 after 0.342 in Nov'24
- % 3mth ar: 3.5 in Dec '24 after 4.3 in Nov'24
- % 6mth ar: 3.7 in Dec '24 after 3.1 in Nov'24
Source: Bloomberg, MNI
US DATA: Supercore CPI At Low End Of Expectations
- Core services excl OER & primary rents ('supercore'): 0.205% M/M after 0.342%. Latest 3mth av of 0.287%
- Limited analyst estimates for ex OER & rents had averaged 0.27% M/M, ranging from 0.20 to 0.36
- Core services excl all shelter: 0.282% M/M after 0.233%. Latest 3mth av of 0.284%
- This comes with lodging away from home slipping -0.95%.
US DATA: Headline Slightly Higher Than Expected On Energy
The slight miss on core (0.23% vs 0.24% expected) came as supercore inflation was below expected (0.21% vs 0.25% consensus, 0.34% pri).
Headline was a slight beat at 0.39% (0.38% expected) with food a little softer than expected and energy slightly above (see table):
