US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback Still In Play
- RES 4: 114-17 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-29 High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 112-24 @ 19:33 BST Sep 19
- SUP 1: 112-23+/112-15+ Low Sep 19 / High Aug 5 and 14
- SUP 2: 112-08 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08 and the next key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger has been defined at 113-29, the Sep 11 high.
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USDJPY TECHS: Sights Are On Trendline Support
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 148.52 High Aug 12
- PRICE: 147.06 @ 16:18 BST Aug 20
- SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.47 100-dma
- SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug Upleg
USDJPY remains in consolidation mode. A bearish threat is present as the pair trades closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger S/T reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal on Aug 1. This would open 144.69, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of it would be viewed as a bull signal.
US TSYS: Post-July FOMC Minutes React Update: Support Cools
Slightly hawkish minutes (pre-NFP) sees support in Tsys gradually cooling.
- Tsy Sep 10Y contract trades at 111-28 (+3.5) vs. 112-00.5 high, 10Y yield rises to 4.2887%.
- Initial technical support well below at 111-11 (50-day EMA); resistance above at 112-15.5 (High Aug 5 and the bull trigger).
- Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.100 at 54.510, 5s30s +.806 at 109.048.
US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: 30Y Ultra-Bond Funded Skew Play
- -5,000 WNU5 117.5 puts 30 vs. 117-16/0.50%
- vs. +5,000 WNV5 116/119 put over risk reversal, 10 net vs. 117-08/0.75% at 1355:39ET
