US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback Extends

• MNI: US Q2 FHFA HPI Q/Q SA -0.0% V +2.9% Q2 2024

• MNI:US JUN FHFA HPI SA -0.2% V -0.1% MAY; +2.6% Y/Y

Durable goods orders showed a pickup in July, with better revisions casting a slightly better light on goods production and business equipment investment this summer.

• Headline durable goods orders bested expectations at -2.8% M/M (-3.8% expected, -9.4% prior), weighed down once again by the extremely volatile nondefense aircraft orders category (-33% M/M, after -53% prior).
• A better signal came from durable orders ex-transportation, which rose 1.1% (0.2% expected) after 0.3% prior. And the key core capital goods orders (nondefense, ex-aircraft) category also rose by 1.1% M/M (0.2% expected), more than reversing June's decline (-0.6%, upwardly revised from -0.8%).
• Meanwhile, core shipments continued to hum along, rising by a 27-month high 0.7% M/M (0.2% expected, 0.4% prior rev from 0.3%).
• Zooming out, core capital goods orders are nor rising at a 3.8% 3M/3M annualized pace, the strongest since March at which point activity was seen to be heavily influenced by tariff front-running.
• The Y/Y NSA figure may tell a clearer story, and it's a positive one: core orders have risen 4.4% Y/Y by that measure for two consecutive months, the best seen since Q4 2022.
• Category-wise, there was strength pretty much across the board, with metal products, machinery, computers/electronics, and electrical equipment/appliances/ components, and motor vehicles and parts all seeing a rise in new orders (we exclude volatile aircraft).
• One note of caution here is that the figures are in nominal dollar terms and thus may be reflecting a bottoming out of goods / components prices in addition to orders volumes. But momentum appears to be headed back in a positive direction, at least tentatively.