BTP TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.13/94 High Nov 19 / High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.78 @ Close Nov 21
- SUP 1: 120.48 Low Nov 20
- SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25
The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, the contract has breached support at 120.74, the Aug 5 high, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 120.76. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a deeper correction and expose 120.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.94, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
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SILVER TECHS: Pierces Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $55.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $52.622/54.480 - High Oct 21 / 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $49.046 @ 08:15 BST Oct 22
- SUP 1: $47.550 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $45.142 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4
Trend signals in Silver are bullish and the latest sharp pullback is considered corrective. Note that the trend condition is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $49.053, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a corrective pullback towards the 50-day EMA, at $45.142. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4004 @ 08:07 BST Oct 22
- SUP 1: 1.3976/3900 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3821 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The trend condition remains bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3900, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3976.
AUDUSD TECHS: Potential Reversal Signal
- RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6545 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6505 @ 08:03 BST Oct 22
- SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
- SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode. Price action on Oct 14 continues to highlight a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. Note that MA studies have remained in a bull-mode position during the latest bear leg, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. Initial resistance is 0.6545, the 50-day EMA. A breach of 0.6440, the Oct 14 low, would cancel the reversal pattern and reinstate a bear threat.
