US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Contract Highs
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-26+ 2.764 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 113-21+ Intraday High & 2.618 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
- PRICE: 113-14+ @ 16:56 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 112-28+/112-04 Intraday low / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 111-22 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
The trend outlook in Treasury futures firmed further Friday, bringing in new contract highs for the Z5 contract. The move higher also highlights an acceleration of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This paves the way for an extension through 113-21 next, a Fibonacci projection that was challenged at today’s high. Initial firm support to watch is 112-04, the 20-day EMA.
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US TSYS: Tsy Gap Lower - Rebound
- Treasuries gapped lower in the last few minutes, no obvious headline driver or Block/cross cited for move with some desks citing trade error for the initial move.
- Stops triggered on the way down volume jumped on the move (TYU5 appr 60,000 over a two minute span) as futures fall to 111-26.5 low -- then rebound.
- Currently, the Sep'25 10Y futures currently trades -5 at 112-04.5 vs. 112-06.5 pre-move.
- Curves gapped steeper but have retreated as well: 2s10s tapped 54.666 high currently +2.999 at 51.367.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Aug07 $1.1600(E1.1bln), $1.1745-50(E1.6bln); Aug08 $1.1500(E1.5bln), $1.1700(E1.4bln); Aug11 $1.1550(E1.2bln); Aug12 $1.1500(E1.5bln)
- EUR/GBP: Aug08 Gbp0.8675(E1.3bln), Gbp0.8700(E1.3bln)
- AUD/USD: Aug08 $0.6500(A$4.4bln)
- NZD/USD: Aug11 $0.5920-30(N$1.1bln)
SWITZERLAND: Fed. Councillors End Meeting w/US' Rubio, No Word On Tariffs Yet
President of the Swiss Confederation Karin Keller-Sutter said that she had a "good meeting" with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, D.C., adding it was a "friendly conversation." Keller-Sutter, who as president this year sits as the 'first among equals' as chair of the seven-member Federal Council that makes up Switzerland's collective head of gov't and state, did not answer questions from reporters on whether Switzerland could offer more to the US to avoid 39% 'reciprocal' tariffs. Keller-Sutter, who serves as Minister of Finance, was accompanied by fellow federal councillor Guy Parmelin, who serves as Economy Minister and vice president of the Confederation.
- Posting on X, Keller-Sutter said, “We discussed bilateral cooperation between Switzerland and the US, the tariff situation, and international issues,”.
- The meeting with Rubio was seen as something of a snub for the Swiss, given that the State Dep't does not hold any powers in terms of negotiating bilateral trade deals. It is Treasury Sec Scott Bessent, Commerce Sec Howard Lutnick, and USTR Jamieson Greer who have led the way on trade talks ahead of the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on 7 Aug.
- It is unclear if the Swiss federal councillors will get to meet with President Donald Trump. While the president of the Confederation is entitled to represent the entire Federal Council on foreign visits, it is unclear if the US will acquiesce.
