US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-05 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-29 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 113-13+ @ 11:11 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: 113-05+/112-21+ Low Sep 10 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 112-00+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
Treasury futures rallied to a fresh cycle high yesterday, allowing the contract to build on the bulk of its latest gains. Note that the recent impulsive rally highlights an acceleration of the uptrend. Also, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This suggests scope for an extension through 114-00 next and a test of 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 112-21+, the 20-day EMA.
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SOFR OPTIONS: SFRU5 96.00/96.125/96.25 Call Fly Blocked
Latest block trade lodged at 06:00:30 NY/11:00:30 London
- SFRU5 96.00/96.125/96.25 call fly 4K blocked at 1.0, looks like a buyer vs. 95.955 (10% delta).
US TSY FUTURES: Mix Of Positioning Swings Seen Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net short cover (TU), long setting (FV), short setting (TY & WN) and long cover (UXY & US) as the curve twist steepened on Tuesday.
- There was a very modest bias towards cover in DV01 equivalent terms, although positioning swings on both the curve and within individual contracts were contained.
| 12-Aug-25 | 11-Aug-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,510,070 | 4,560,629 | -50,559 | -1,856,120 |
FV | 7,056,967 | 7,019,753 | +37,214 | +1,592,387 |
TY | 5,226,061 | 5,205,642 | +20,419 | +1,351,125 |
UXY | 2,458,179 | 2,465,186 | -7,007 | -615,355 |
US | 1,765,899 | 1,774,368 | -8,469 | -1,188,285 |
WN | 2,005,682 | 2,001,889 | +3,793 | +695,636 |
|
| Total | -4,609 | -20,611 |
LOOK AHEAD: More Post-CPI Fedspeak
US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 08/13 0700 MBA mortgage applications
- 08/13 0800 Barkin repeats remarks on economy (text + Q&A)
- 08/13 1115 Trump visits The Kennedy Center and makes announcement
- 08/13 1130 US Tsy to sell $65B 17-W bills
- 08/13 1300 Goolsbee speaks at mon pol luncheon (text tbd, Q&A)
- 08/13 1330 Bostic speaks on economic outlook (Q&A only)
- 08/13 1600 Trump signs executive orders
Source: Bloomberg, Roll Call, MNI
