BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Threat

• The German Bund trades lower going into the Cash Open, as expected Month End had no impact on Friday, and with August behind us, risk is tilted to the downside.
• The early standout flow is in the Schatz, but this is all related to the spread being bought at -10.5.
• The September will expire next Monday for Eurex Bonds.
• Next support in Bund is at 129.16, followed by the 2.80% in Yield.
• Resistance is at today's high, 129.50, but better is seen at 130.00 despite printing a 130.06 high on the 14th August.
• This is a very busy Week ahead, and all about the Data, Bond Traders will also look to complete their Eurex Rolls.
• Today only sees, final Mfg PMIs for France, Germany, EU, UK.
• There are no Data out of the US given that this is a US Bank Holiday (Labour Day).

• RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $69.06/71.93 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $67.36 @ 07:03 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Despite trading closer to their recent highs, a bear cycle in Brent futures remains intact and short’-term gains are considered corrective. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 120.25 @ Close Aug 29
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and the direction remains up. For now, the contract continues to trade inside a broad range and the Aug 15 sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a range breakout and a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.