BRENT TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme Intact
- RES 4: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- RES 1: $65.70 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $60.86 @ 07:04 BST Oct 17
- SUP 1: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 2: $58.50 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $55.91 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
A bear cycle in Brent futures remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces the current bearish theme. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on the psychological $60.00 handle where a break would open $58.50, the May 5 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $65.70, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high.
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UK DATA: Food and services lower than BOE forecasts; petrol higher than BOE
- Relative to the BOE's forecasts headline is in line to the hundredth.
- Food is actually 9 hundredths lower (was 21 hundredths higher last month).
- Energy is in line with consensus but surprised the BOE 44 hundredths to the upside (due to petrol prices).
- This was offset by services being 8 hundredths lower than the BOE forecast at 4.72%Y/Y (vs 4.80%).
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 173.66 @ 07:08 BST Sep 17
- SUP 1: 172.67/171.56 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull phase. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. Clearance of 173.97 would open 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 171.56.
UK DATA: Unrounded CPI
- Headline 3.79%Y/Y in August (MNI median 3.7%, BOE 3.79%, 3.83% in July)
- Core 3.59%Y/Y in August (MNI median 3.7%, BOE 3.62%, 3.76% in July)
- Services 4.72%Y/Y in August (MNI median 4.8%, BOE 4.8%, 4.98% in July)
- NEIG 1.61%Y/Y in August (MNI median 1.66%, BOE 1.57%, 1.63% in July)
- Energy 2.47%Y/Y in August (MNI median 0.7%, BOE 2.03%, 1.45% in July)
- Food, alcohol, tobacco 5.33%Y/Y in August (MNI median 5.07%, BOE 5.32%, 5.14% in July)
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages 5.12%Y/Y in August (MNI median 4.75%, BOE 5.22%, 4.95% in July)
