COPPER TECHS: (Z5) Bear Flag

Sep-11 13:26
  • RES 4: $602.25 - High Jul 24 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: $588.70 - High Jul 30 
  • RES 2: $550.00 - Low Jul 9 & 28 
  • RES 1: $479.16 - 50-day EMA 
  • PRICE: $459.80 @ 14:39 BST Sep 10
  • SUP 1: $440.55 - Low Jul 31   
  • SUP 2: $418.85 - Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $400.00 - Round number support    
  • SUP 4: $392.10 - Low Aug 7 2024 (cont)  

Copper futures remain in consolidation mode. The sharp reversal down from the Jul 30 high cancels a recent bullish theme and instead highlights a bear threat. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key support at $418.85, the Apr 7 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that the most recent sideways move appears to be a flag -  a bearish continuation pattern. Initial resistance is $479.16, the 50-day EMA.

Historical bullets

BUNDS: German 30yr Yield highest in 14yrs

Aug-12 13:17
  • German 30yr Buxl falls towards 115.00, helping push the Yield above the 2023 high of 3.263%, to reach its highest printed level since August 2011.
  • The next big upside target would be situated at 3.30%, which today would equate to 114.37.

US DATA: Travel Categories, Medical Services Largely Responsible For Core Uptick

Aug-12 13:06

As usual, core services contributed the majority of overall core CPI in July, worth around 0.28pp of the 0.32% M/M reading. That's up from 0.19pp in June (on a core CPI reading of 0.23% M/M). 

  • As seen in the table below, the increased services inflation pressure vs June's report was almost entirely due to airfares (0.05pp more of a contribution), lodging (0.03pp more, albeit still contributing negatively), and medical services (0.02pp more). The key housing categories had a relatively flat contribution vs June.
  • Core goods once again contributed 0.05pp, though the composition was different this month: used and new vehicles contributed slightly positively (after subtracting 0.04pp in June), with all other core goods seeing their contribution fall to 0.04pp from 0.09pp prior.
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US-CHINA: China Orders Companies To Halt NVIDIA Chip Orders

Aug-12 13:04

"*CHINA ORDERS COMPANIES TO HALT NVIDIA CHIP ORDERS: INFORMATION" Bloomberg
"*CHINA ORDER APPLIES TO BYTEDANCE, ALIBABA, OTHERS: INFORMATION" Bloomberg