BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bear Cycle
- RES 4: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance
- RES 3: 118.770 High Oct 22
- RES 2: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
- RES 1: 118.201 20-day EMA.
- PRICE: 118.110 @ 05:40 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 117.960/900 Low Nov 10 / Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.710 Low Oct 6
- SUP 4: 117.630 Low Oct 1
The short-term trend condition in Bobl futures remains bearish for now. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low Monday, reinforcing a bear theme. Price is through 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. This signals scope for an extension towards 117.824, the 76.4% Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 118.195, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal a possible reversal.
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RATINGS: Cyprus Moved To Positive At Scope, Affirmations Elsewhere On Friday
Rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed Lithuania at A (high), Stable Trend
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed Malta at A (high), Stable Trend
- Scope Ratings affirmed Cyprus at A-; Outlook changed to Positive
- Scope Ratings affirmed the European Union at AAA; Outlook Stable
- Scope Ratings affirmed Hungary's at BBB; Outlook Stable
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Range Parameters Intact For Now
- RES 4: 122.56 0.764 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
- RES 3: 121.88 0.618 proj of the Apr 9 - May 8 - 14 price swing (cont)
- RES 2: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 120.43/120.74 High Oct 8 & 9 / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.62 @ Close Oct 10
- SUP 1: 119.85 Low Oct 7
- SUP 2: 119.07 Low Sep 25
- SUP 3: 118.36 Low Sep 3 and key support
- SUP 4: 118.00 Rund number support
BTP futures futures rallied Friday reinforcing a bullish outlook. For now, the contract continues to trade in a range. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Initial firm support to watch lies at 119.07, the Sep 25 low. Clearance of this level would allow for a deeper short-term retracement towards key support at 118.36, the Sep 3 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 107.240 High Aug 4
- RES 3: 107.225 High Aug 27 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 107.145/190 High Sep 11 / High Sep 5 and 8
- RES 1: 107.125 High Oct 13
- PRICE: 107.095 @ 06:43 BST Oct 13
- SUP 1: 107.026 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.965/920 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 106.907 1.618 proj of the the Aug 27 - Sep 2 - 8 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.900 Round number support
Schatz futures traded sharply higher Friday and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. A key short-term resistance at 107.050, the Aug 25 and Sep 2 low plus a recent high, has been cleared. The break of this hurdle undermines a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger recovery. This opens 107.145, the Sep 11 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 106.920, the Sep 25 low.
