ISRAEL: Ynet-PM Orders Readiness For Attack On Iran Facilities w/o US Backing
Israel's Ynet reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) to ensure readiness for aerial attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, even though the Trump administration has warned Israel off launching strikes without Washington's go-ahead. The report claims that despite President Trump stating on 28 May that "I told [Netanyahu] this would be inappropriate to do right now because we're very close to a solution now", the Israeli gov't is minded to maintain combat readiness. This is because the Netanyahu administration "is convinced: even if we attack without coordination, [the US] will assist in the face of an Iranian counterattack".
- While Netanyahu may view the current moment as a precipitous time of weakness for Iran and therefore a narrow window in which to try and knock out its nuclear programme, such an attack would be fraught with risk.
- Indeed, it could prove the final straw that spurs Tehran to develop a nuclear weapon. N12 reports at the start of 2025, Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that it had 275kg of uranium enriched to 60% at its Natanz facility. To make one nuclear bomb, 40kg enriched to 90% is required, needing 500 advanced centrifuges and 10 days to complete.
- The space required to operate this amount of centrifuges is ~1,000sq. m, meaning that Iran can locate such sites across the country rather than just at its main nuclear sites. Even with a widespread attack, Israel has no way of knocking out all of Iran's potential nuclear sites, many of which are deep underground.
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TARIFFS: France to consider small parcel fees for Chinese imports
Bloomberg headlines report that France is considering "small-parcel fees as flows from China surge".
- Note that there is concern in Europe about small value imports flooding the markets due to the US' imposition of tariffs on "de minimis" goods.
- Previously goods under USD800 imported via the postal network could be imported to the US tariff-free. That is due to end on 2 May for goods from China and Hong Kong (it's a separate but related announcement to the reciprocal tariffs).
- These headlines are one of the first real acknowledgements of how other countries will potentially be looking to deal with goods that are "dumped" in other countries due to not being viable to export to the US any more.
COMMODITIES: Medium-Term Bearish Theme in WTI Futures Remains Intact
A medium-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery that started on Apr 9 appears corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A clear resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is $65.59, the 50-day EMA. Gold continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3231.3, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.72 or -1.16% at $61.46
- Natural Gas down $0 or -0.12% at $3.333
- Gold spot down $28.82 or -0.86% at $3320.55
- Copper up $2.75 or +0.56% at $490.7
- Silver up $0.06 or +0.18% at $33.2441
- Platinum up $0.03 or +0% at $991.87
EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Maintain a Positive Tone
Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a positive tone and are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 5101.76. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. Support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. The corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract has breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance is 5619.66, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish.
- In China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 1.76 pts or -0.05% at 3286.655 and the HANG SENG ended 36.15 pts higher or +0.16% at 22008.11.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 120.72 pts or +0.54% at 22386.98, FTSE 100 lower by 2.14 pts or -0.03% at 8417.02, CAC 40 down 7.59 pts or -0.1% at 7575.72 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 3.27 pts or -0.06% at 5170.64.
- Dow Jones mini up 77 pts or +0.19% at 40409, S&P 500 mini up 11.5 pts or +0.21% at 5558.5, NASDAQ mini up 46.75 pts or +0.24% at 19550.75.
