US TSYS: Yields Retreat, Alternative Employment Data Lagging
Nov-06 20:12
- Treasuries are trading sideways since climbing to session highs late Thursday morning, markets turning towards alternative employment data due to the ongoing US Govt shutdown.
- Revelio Labs' estimate of October nonfarm payrolls growth came in at -9.1k vs +33.0k prior (rev from +60.1k) and August's actual figure reported by the BLS of +22k (Revelio estimates Aug at +14.5k). That is the first negative M/M reading for the Revelio series since May.
- Fed speak: Chicago Fed's Goolsbee (2025 FOMC voter) says his bank's October labor estimates (4.36% unemployment rate) are consistent with labor market "stability". "To me, most of the labor market indicators that we're getting show a lot of stability in the market....I still think there's mild cooling."
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said Thursday interest rates should stay where they are to ensure inflation returns to goal, adding monetary policy is "only barely restrictive, if that. At this point, I don’t think there is more that monetary policy can do without risking a fall off the wire,"
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y contract trades +15.5 at 112-26 vs. 112-30 high. Initial key near-term resistance is seen at 113-02, the Nov 5 high. The week's steepening in 2s10s stalled (-.022 at 52.528) while 5s30s continued to gain (+2.461 at 99.703).
- Projected rate cut pricing gaining vs. morning levels (*): Dec'25 at -17.2bp (-16.6bp), Jan'26 at -26.1bp (-24.6bp), Mar'26 at -35bp (-33.2bp), Apr'26 at -40.6bp (-38.9bp).
- Due to the ongoing US Govt shutdown, the employment report for October produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is suspended. Fed speakers, University of Michigan Sentiment / Expectations and Consumer Credit expected.
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US TSYS: Tsys Rise as Risk Sentiment Cools, Focus On Wednesday's FOMC Minutes
Oct-07 20:01
- Treasuries unwound early weakness - look to finish higher across the board Tuesday as risk sentiment cooled early in the first half with stocks rejecting new record highs.
- Stocks are holding weaker levels on narrow ranges after SPX and the Nasdaq indexes retreated from new record highs on Tuesday's open. No obvious block or headline driver as rates climbed to new session highs.
- Treasuries briefly extended highs after the Tsy $58B 3Y note auction (91282CPC9) stops through again: drawing 3.576% high yield vs. 3.584% WI; 2.66x bid-to-cover vs. 2.73x prior.
- Tsy Dec'25 10Y contract currently at 112-20 (+7.5) vs. 112-24 high, initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high. A break would be bullish. Curves mixed: 2s10s -.684 at 55.678, 5s30s +.662 at 101.848.
- U.S. government shutdown extended into a 7th day, and a lack of breakthrough by the end of this week will begin to prompt furloughed workers to miss pay checks, adding pressure to lawmakers to come to a resolution.
- Look ahead: September FOMC Minutes, Fed Speak, 10Y R/O.
USDCAD TECHS: Northbound
Oct-07 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4071 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3985 200-dma
- PRICE: 1.3945 @ 16:46 BST Oct 7
- SUP 1: 1.3897/3834 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and last week’s clearance of the late September’s high, reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3834, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Oct-07 19:30
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
- PRICE: 0.6591 @ 16:45 BST Oct 7
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6562. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
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