GILTS: Yesterday's CPI-inspired Gap Higher Provides a Floor For Futures
Oct-23 08:22
Gilt futures have traded in a tight 17 tick range this morning, currently -14 ticks at 93.40. The opening gap higher seen following yesterday’s softer-than-expected September inflation report is currently being tested. However, yesterday’s rally has strengthened a bullish technical condition, with initial resistance at yesterday’s 93.93 high.
- Gilt yields are ~1.5bps higher across the curve. Support in the 10-year yield at ~4.35% held yesterday. That means trendline support drawn from the November 2022 high remans intact for now.
- The DMO will return to the market this morning to launch the new long 5-year 4.125% Mar-31 gilt for GBP4.75bln. We look for a strong auction.
- CBI industrial trends data for October is due this morning, but there’s much more focus on tomorrow’s October flash PMIs.
- Meanwhile, BOE dove Dhingra is scheduled to speak at the Central Bank of Ireland’s ESCB Cluster 2 academic conference at 1400BST. Text will be released on the BOE’s website.
Figure 1: 10-year Gilt Yields (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.)
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EGB SYNDICATION: DDA: 30-year 3.50% Jan-56 DSL: Revised guidance
Sep-23 08:18
- Guidance: 2.90% Aug-54 Bund + 19.5 to 21.0bps
- Prelim initial spread guidance yesterday was +18.5 to 22.5bps then revised to 19.5 to 22.5bps this morning
- Size: E4.0-5.0bln will be on offer (MNI assume takeup at the top of the target range)
- Books in excess of E25bln
- Maturity: 15 January 2056
- ISIN: NL0015002P70
- The preliminary initial spread guidance is 2.90% Aug-54 Bund + 18.5 to 22.5bps.
- MNI expect books to close between 10:00BST / 11:00CET and 11:00BST / midday CET.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Upside Call Spread vs Put Spread
Sep-23 08:15
ERM6 98.12/98.25cs vs 97.9375/97.8125ps, bought the cs for 1.5 in 5k.
EGB SYNDICATION: DDA: 30-year 3.50% Jan-56 DSL: Books in excess of E23bln
Sep-23 08:12
- Guidance: 2.90% Aug-54 Bund + 19.5 to 22.5bps (prelim initial spread guidance was +18.5 to 22.5bps)
- Size: E4.0-5.0bln will be on offer (MNI assume takeup at the top of the target range)
- Books in excess of E23bln
- Maturity: 15 January 2056
- ISIN: NL0015002P70
- The preliminary initial spread guidance is 2.90% Aug-54 Bund + 18.5 to 22.5bps.
- MNI expect books to close between 10:00BST / 11:00CET and 11:00BST / midday CET.
