BRENT TECHS: (X5) Key S/T Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $68.94 @ 07:10 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures have traded higher this week. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
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BUND TECHS: (U5) Potential Reversal
- RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
- RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 130.21/76 High Aug 1 / High Jul 22
- RES 1: 130.11 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 129.68 @ 07:07 BST Aug 4
- SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont)
- SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)
Bund futures traded sharply higher Friday, reinforcing a bullish theme. The sell-off on Jul 25, resulted in a test of the base of a 3.5-month range at the 129.00 handle. Price has recovered and this key support remains intact, for now. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28 signals a potential reversal. A continuation higher would open 130.76, the Jul 22 high. Key support to watch is 128.84, the Jul 25 low.
BUNDS: Off the low post Cash Open
- The German Bund and Tnotes (TYU5) are unwinding some of Friday's rally during the Overnight and now into the European session, notable Volumes and range for Monday's early session, but both Contract are finding some demand since the Bund Cash Open.
- Very short term risk remains to the upside for Bund, noted last Week, on the constant uncertainty in Trade, some Desks will now look at the latest US Data report as a likely impact, Yield levels provide some interest in parking Cash, Month End (last Week) and some seasonality for the Month of August.
- President Trump said he will announce a new Fed Governor and a new BLS statistician in the coming days.
- MNI had an Interview over the Weekend: "Ex-Chief Says BLS Can Withstand Trump Pressure"
- It is a lighter day on the Data front, Swiss CPI will move Swiss assets, but since European CPIs had no impact on Bund, don't expect this data to be a needle mover.
- This afternoon, sees US Factory Orders and the final Durable Goods.
RATINGS: Finland Moved To Negative Outlook At Scope
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- Scope Ratings affirmed Finland at AA+, Outlook changed to Negative
- Scope Ratings affirmed Norway at AAA; Outlook Stable
- Scope Ratings affirmed South Africa at BB; Outlook Stable
