WTI TECHS: (X5) Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $65.43/68.43 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: $65.26 @ 07:19 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: $60.85 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures are trading at this week’s highs. Despite recent gains, the trend condition remains bearish and the recovery is considered corrective - for now. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. A clear break of it would suggest potential for a stronger recovery, towards key short-term resistance at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $60.85, Aug 13 low.
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BRENT TECHS: (V5) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.98/72.83 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $67.21 @ 07:15 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
- SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Despite the latest recovery - a correction - a bear cycle in Brent futures remains intact. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
BUNDS: Focus is on Supply Today
- It was just a 7 ticks range for Bund Overnight and was trading flat going into the Cash Open.
- While US Treasuries are still showing September as the most active contract, this will change Today, and as such we'll start quoting the December Contract. Expect Dec Gilt to be front when it opens.
- Back to the German Bund, the range has slightly increases to 11 ticks post Cash Open, and the GFK Data miss had no impact on the contract.
- Overall the initial resistance and support are still untested.
- These are at 129.62 (resistance), and 128.59 (support, and 2.80% level).
- There are no Tier 1 Data for Today's session, Friday will be the main day on the Data front. Focus is on Supply and the completion of the US and UK Bonds roll into December.
- SUPPLY: UK £5bn 3yr (equates to 13.8k Gilt) should have limited impact, German €4bn 7yr (equates to 25.6k Bund, or 51.2k Bobl) should weigh into the bidding deadline. US Sells $70bn of 5yr Notes, and $28bn of 2yr FRN reopening.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 173.02/97 High Aug 13 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 171.65 @ 07:12 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: 170.56 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23
EURJPY is in consolidation mode. The trend structure remains bullish and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.56. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reinforcing the primary uptrend. Key resistance to watch is the Jul 28 high of 173.97, a break would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle.
