BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $65.90 @ 07:01 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures have recovered from their most recent lows. Short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BUND TECHS: (U5) Slips Into Close, Exposing Support
- RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
- RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 22
- RES 1: 130.60 High Aug 5
- PRICE: 129.24 @ 07:08 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont)
- SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)
Bunds slipped again into the Tuesday close, extending the spell of weakness after the break back below the 130.00 handle. The bear trigger and notable support of 128.84 is yet to be tested, but further impulsive selling will see the level under pressure. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 130.05 failed to stick, which cancels any bullish theme that followed the formation of a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28. 129.57 marks intraday resistance.
MNI: GERMANY FINAL JULY HICP 1.8%
- GERMANY FINAL JULY HICP 1.8%
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Germany is due to hold auctions this week, while Finland has already held an auction. We pencil in issuance of just E6.5bln in the week, down from E24.5bln last week.
- Germany will come to the market today with E5bln of the 10-year 2.60% Aug-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z056).
- Cancelled auction: The MEF has announced that it will not hold the 3/7/15+ year BTP auction that had been scheduled for 13 August. This is in line with recent convention and is not unexpected. The MEF noted that this decision was taken “considering the cash management activity”.
NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees E43.9bln of redemptions, of which E30.5bln is from a formerly 10-year Bund and E13.4bln from a formerly 3-year BTP. Coupon payments for the week total E6.3bln of which E5.5bln are German and E0.8bln are Italian. This leaves estimated net flows for the week strongly negative at negative E43.8bln, versus positive E23.5bln last week.
