AMERICAS OIL: WTI TECHS: Southbound
WTI TECHS: (J5) Southbound
• RES 4: $80.07 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 3: $79.07 - 3.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 2: $7786 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $71.49/74.06 - 50-day EMA / High Feb 3 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $69.09 @ 07:19 GMT Feb 26
• SUP 1: $68.68 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 2: $67.75 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
• SUP 3: $66.41 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The move lower has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started on Jan 15 and paves the way for an extension towards $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $74.06, Feb 3 high.
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SONIA: Large Call Fly seller
0NM5 96.10/96.30/96.50c fly, sold at 2 in 16k.
EGBS: 10-year RAGBs Underperform Semi-core Peers Following Syndication Mandate
The 10-year RAGB/Bund spread has widened ~2bps since this morning’s dual-tranche syndication mandate, now at 37bps. This leaves 10-year RAGBs underperforming semi-core peers (Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, Portugal and France) intraday.
- The timing of Austria’s first syndication had been uncertain due to questions surrounding the budget outlook. MNI had looked for a transaction this week or in the first half of February – with a lean towards the latter.
- A new 10-year Feb-25 RAGB maturing 20 February 2035 will be launched alongside a tap of the 1.85% May-49 Green RAGB – in line with MNI’s expectations.
- A reminder that the EU decided not to proceed with an Excessive Debt Procedure on Austria earlier this month, after negotiators attempting to form a right-wing coalition presented a E6.4bln savings plan.
- On Jan 10, Fitch revised Austria’s outlook to Negative from Stable (rating affirmed at AA+).
- As of Q3 ‘24, the 4Q rolling sum of the budget balance was -3.7% of GDP (vs -3.3% in Q2). Both Bloomberg analysts and the EC expect the 2024 budget balance to print at -3.6% of GDP, down from -2.6% in 2023.
CROSS ASSET: MONTH END EXTENSION (update)
Looking at the UK, this looks to be a record Extension for the Month of January at least for Bloomberg (Used to be Barclays).
Bloomberg Bonds projected:
- US Tsys: +0.07yr (small, average).
- EU Govies: +0.10yr (decent).
- UK Govies: +0.23yr (HUGE).
MS Bonds:
- US Tsys: +0.05yr (small).
- EU Govies: +0.07yr (small, average).
- UK Govies: +0.17yr (LARGE).
