COMMODITIES: WTI Slides, Precious Metals Rebound
- WTI has drifted lower in US hours but continues to hold broadly within the range seen since Oct 23 as supply outlooks remain in focus. US crude stocks saw their largest weekly increase since July.
- WTI Dec 25 is down by 1.5% at $59.6/bbl.
- US crude inventories for the week to Oct 24 built by 5.2mbbl compared to a Bloomberg survey expectation of a 0.25mbbl draw, but roughly in line with the API build of 6.5mbbl.
- WTI futures remain in a corrective cycle for now. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
- On the upside, a clear move through initial resistance at $62.59, the Oct 24 high, would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high.
- Elsewhere, precious metals have rebounded today, with spot gold rising by 1.4% to $3,987/oz and silver by 2.2% to $48.2/oz.
- From a technical standpoint, the retracement in gold since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3,871.9.
- Initial resistance is at $4,161.4, the Oct 22 high.
- For silver, trend signals remain bullish, with initial resistance at $49.456, the Oct 23 high.
- Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $46.171.
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EQUITIES: Tech Discretionary Names Lead As S&P Set For Fresh Closing High
Equities had a constructive session Tuesday, with the S&P 500 set to post another record high close. Tech (+0.8% - S&P 500 subsector) and consumer discretionary stocks (+1.0%) outperforming. Consumer stapes (-0.7%) and real estate (-1.0%) lagged.
- Overall it was a tech story again: Tesla led consumer discretionary gains (+5%) as it shared hints that it would unveil a new product Tuesday, and Advanced Micro Devices soared 24% (38% at the high) after announcing a deal to supply OpenAI.
- Futures-wise, S&P Eminis are eyeing next resistance at 6812.29 (2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing).
Below gives key levels of markets in afternoon NY trade:
- DJIA down 86.14 points (-0.18%) at 46669.52
- S&P E-Mini Future up 25.5 points (0.38%) at 6789
- Nasdaq up 181 points (0.8%) at 22959.5
Prior European bourses closing levels:
- EuroStoxx 50 down 22.99 points (-0.41%) at 5628.72
- FTSE 100 down 12.11 points (-0.13%) at 9479.14
- German DAX down 0.51 points (0%) at 24378.29
- French CAC 40 down 109.76 points (-1.36%) at 7971.78
OPTIONS: US Options Roundup - Oct 6 2025
Monday's US rates/bond options flow included:
- TYZ5 114/116cs, bought for 13 in 5k
- SFRX5 96.43c, sold at 1.75 in 4k.
- SFRV5 96.31/96.37^^, sold at 1.5 in 2k
- SFRX5 96.25/96.43^^, traded 4.75 in 1.5k.
- SFRZ5 96.31/96.25/96.18p fly, bought for 0.25 in 2k
- SFRZ5 96.56/96.62cs, bought for half in 11k
- SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.43/96.56c condor, bought for 6 in 4k.
- SFRZ5 96.50/96.625cs, bought for 1 in 5k (on Block)
- SFRU6/Z6/H7/M7 96.875^, bought for 306.5 in 300 lots
- SFRU6 97.43/97.12/96.81p ladder, traded -0.75 in 5k.
- SFRU6 96.37p, traded for 8.5 in 2.5k.
- 2QZ5 96.50/96.37ps , traded 1.5 in 2k.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
- PRICE: 0.6617 @ 16:31 BST Oct 6
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6560. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
