COMMODITIES: WTI Posts Bearish Daily Close

RXQ5 130.5/131.5cs vs 128p, bought the cs for 3 in 2k.

• The assumption that debt could rise to "above 270% of GDP by the early 2070s" is a broad reaffirmation of 274% number from the September report baseline
• "A low-productivity variant of our 2024 FRS long-term fiscal projections based on productivity growth of 0.5 per cent (1.0 percentage points below our central scenario) would increase net debt relative to our central projection by over 350 per cent of GDP by 2073-74, reaching 647 per cent of GDP."
• There isn't a lot else on productivity assessments in here - it doesn't appear that the productivity estimates have been updated (the long-term 270%+ number would have changed a lot more if it had) with the following in the report: "Our latest TFP forecast lies at a mid-point between these stronger and weaker periods of growth [extremes of 0.5-2.2% since 2010], reaching 1.1 per cent a year for TFP and 1¼ per cent a year of overall productivity by 2029-30. Over the medium-term, this is more optimistic than most external forecasters. The Bank of England, for example, projects that productivity growth will settle at ¾ per cent over the medium-term."
• There is a paragraph on the latest fiscal changes from the government, with warnings over the recent government U-turns increasing spending:
  "The Government’s reforms to fiscal frameworks have reduced some policy-related risks by codifying multi-year spending planning for public services in legislation, and by legislating that fiscal policy announcements costing more than 1 per cent of GDP are accompanied by an economic and fiscal forecast. The decision to fund an increase in defence and security spending from 2.4 to 2.6 per cent of GDP through reductions in overseas aid spending has addressed one major source of upward pressure on spending. But recent policy commitments create new pressures on the public finances, including the reinstatement of winter fuel payments for some pensioners, the reversal of welfare reforms, and the commitment to further increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2035."

CBK ( 15th Aug) 24p vs (20/03/26) 20p, sold the 2026 at 0.61 in 5k.