OIL: WTI Jumps to New Intraday High

Dec-13 17:12

WTI has jumped to its highest intraday level since Nov. 25. 

  • Crude has been supported by the risk of further sanctions against Russia, coupled with sensitivities towards events in the Middle East and potential impacts on oil supplies.
  • WTI JAN 25 up 1.6% at 71.12$/bbl
  • WTI-Brent up 0.05$/bbl at -3.7$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 25-FEB 25 up 0.09$/bbl at 0.45$/bbl
  • WTI FEB 25-MAR 25 up 0.09$/bbl at 0.4$/bbl

Historical bullets

US: Thune Elected Republican Senate Leader

Nov-13 17:12

Senator John Thune (R-SD) has been elected leader of the Senate Republican caucus, defeating senators Rick Scott (R-FL) and John Cornyn (R-TX) in two rounds of secret ballot voting. In January 2025, when lawmakers return to Washington for the 119th Congress, Thune will assume the role of Senate Majority Leader. He will be tasked with rallying support for President-elect Trump's legislative agenda in the upper chamber and setting the agenda for executive and judicial branch nominations.

  • Thune will lead a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The three-seat buffer will give Thune strong leverage to work around senators Lisa Murkowski (R-AL) and Susan Collins (R-ME) - two moderate Republicans who may have operated as a centrist block on Republican legislation, as Democrats Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema did during the first half of Biden's term.
  • Thune will assume the role with considerable experience managing Senate proceedings, having acted as proxy leader for Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) during his health problems for much of the last year.
  • The Hill notes that Thune has, "pledged to hold regular meetings with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to improve coordination with House Republicans and with Vice President-elect JD Vance to stay in sync with the Trump White House," suggesting a more coherent legislative for Trump during his second term. 

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points South

Nov-13 17:03
  • RES 4: 112-22   High Oct 16 and a key short-term resistance 
  • RES 3: 111-29   50-day EMA 
  • RES 2: 111-14+ High Oct 25 
  • RES 1: 110-25   20-day EMA 
  • PRICE:‌‌ 109-21 @ 16:57 GMT Nov 13
  • SUP 1: 109-07   Low Nov 6 and the bear trigger 
  • SUP 2: 109-05   76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont)
  • SUP 3: 109-00   Round number support 
  • SUP 4: 108-15   2.0% 10-dma envelope

The trend in Treasuries is unchanged and the needle points south with the contract trading closer to its recent lows Furthermore, recent weakness reinforces a bearish condition and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. Sights are on 109-05 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont). The 109-00 handle remains exposed too. Initial firm resistance is seen at 110-25, the 20-day EMA.

OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline

Nov-13 17:01
  • EUR/USD: Nov15 $1.0500(E1.6bln), $1.0600(E1.8bln), $1.0650(E1.0bln), $1.0700(E3.7bln), $1.0800(E1.9bln); Nov19 $1.0650(E1.7bln)
  • USD/JPY: Nov15 Y151.00($1.5bln)
  • AUD/USD: Nov15 $0.6530(A$1.2bln); Nov19 $0.6600(A$1.7bln)
  • USD/CNY: Nov15 Cny7.2000($1.1bln)