COMMODITIES: WTI Gains Amid Supply Disruption, Gold Within Sight Of Record High
- Crude has risen today on reports of reduced CPC pipeline flows and speculation that OPEC is considering another delay to output rises. This is offsetting bearish pressure from US-Russia talks, which could pave the way to a Ukraine peace agreement.
- WTI Mar 25 is up by 1.6% at $71.9/bbl.
- Transneft says the damaged CPC station will take 1.5-2 months to repair and may lead to a 30% drop in Kazakh flows.
- For WTI futures, key short-term resistance is at $74.06, the Feb 3 high. On the downside, attention is on $70.20, the Feb 6 low, which has been pierced. A clear break would open $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low.
- Meanwhile, Henry Hub has surged to its highest level since Jan 24, boosted by freezing weather across large parts of the US and record feedgas flows to US LNG terminals.
- US Natgas Mar 25 is up by 7.5% at $4.01/mmbtu.
- Despite US dollar gains today, spot gold has risen by 1.3% to $2,935/oz, bringing the yellow metal to within sight of last week’s record high at $2,942.7.
- Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold target to $3,100 due to central bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed ETFs. If uncertainty over economic policy persists, gold could even hit $3,300, in their view.
- A bull cycle in gold remains in play, with sights on $2,962.2, a Fibonacci projection, followed by $3,000 psychological round number resistance.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8463 High Jan 15
- PRICE: 0.8443 @ 19:24 GMT Jan 17
- SUP 1: 0.8385 Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 0.8332/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 3: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 4: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for stronger short-term gains. 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has been cleared. Note too that 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8332.
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Still Bearish
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0345/54 20-day EMA / High Jan 15
- PRICE: 1.0282 @ 19:12 GMT Jan 17
- SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s recovery appears corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high. Initial resistance is at 1.0345, the 20-day EMA.
MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$159.9B
- MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$159.9B
- US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN NOV +$79.0B
