COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Remain Weak After Break of Bear Trigger
WTI futures traded poorly Friday, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. This keeps S/T momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. Gold traded lower at the start of the week, but last week's strength returned prices toward the top-end of the recent range and supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal is within close proximity to support at $3334.75, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.
- WTI Crude down $0.61 or -0.97% at $62.56
- Natural Gas down $0 or -0.04% at $2.807
- Gold spot up $12.28 or +0.37% at $3360.53
- Copper down $0.3 or -0.07% at $458.25
- Silver up $0.58 or +1.53% at $38.507
- Platinum up $5.85 or +0.44% at $1349.45
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COMMODITIES: Crude Sees Support Ahead of Trump's 'Major Statement' on Russia
The bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. WTI futures maintain a bearish tone following the reversal from the Jun 23 high, and recent gains still appear corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.39. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- WTI Crude up $0.67 or +0.98% at $69.11
- Natural Gas up $0.15 or +4.56% at $3.464
- Gold spot up $10.96 or +0.33% at $3366.52
- Copper down $6.35 or -1.13% at $554.75
- Silver up $0.57 or +1.49% at $38.9868
- Platinum up $4.1 or +0.29% at $1397.08
EQUITIES: Stocks Hold Bullish Poise Into Earnings Season
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week as the contract extended the recovery that started Jun 23. This exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 110.06 pts or -0.28% at 39459.62 and the TOPIX ended 0.43 pts lower or -0.02% at 2822.81.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 9.473 pts or +0.27% at 3519.65 and the HANG SENG ended 63.75 pts higher or +0.26% at 24203.32.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 182.55 pts or -0.75% at 24071.87, FTSE 100 higher by 29.05 pts or +0.32% at 8969.34, CAC 40 down 42.86 pts or -0.55% at 7786.04 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 36.81 pts or -0.68% at 5346.2.
- Dow Jones mini down 178 pts or -0.4% at 44422, S&P 500 mini down 21.25 pts or -0.34% at 6267.75, NASDAQ mini down 73.25 pts or -0.32% at 22887.25.
OPTIONS: Sizeable Strikes in EUR/USD Could Contain Intraday Strength
Larger FX options rolling off at the cut today include some sizeable strikes in EUR/USD that could contain any intraday strength, while EUR/GBP and AUD/USD also see smaller, but very close-to-market interest:
- EUR/USD: $1.1600-05(E1.5bln), $1.1615-25(E1.6bln), $1.1650(E1.2bln), $1.1700(E853mln), $1.1725-40(E2.3bln) $1.1800($1.5bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3590-05(Gbp565mln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8650(E581mln), Gbp0.8695-00(E882mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6560(A$631mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3660-75($527mln)
