COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Extend Recovery Off Last Week's Lows

Goldman Sachs note that while the BoE’s QT decision is yet to come, “MPR analysis reinforces the view that the BoE is becoming increasingly attuned to risk of market dysfunction and points to a reduction in the QT pace ahead. Against this, the long-end curve has been well insulated from hawkish policy impulses”. They continue to “expect 10-Year gilt yields to decline over time, to 4.25% by year-end”.

WTI futures traded poorly last week, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. This keeps S/T momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. Gold is lower early Monday, however the price continues to benefit from the recent soft NFP print and broad USD weakness. This returns prices toward the top-end of the recent range and supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3332.8, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.

• WTI Crude down $0.23 or -0.36% at $63.63
• Natural Gas down $0.08 or -2.54% at $2.916
• Gold spot down $36.66 or -1.08% at $3362.01
• Copper down $2 or -0.45% at $445.1
• Silver down $0.41 or -1.06% at $37.9511
• Platinum down $12.19 or -0.92% at $1319.39

The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices holds, with the Eurostoxx 50 future above the 50-day EMA Monday morning. Last week's strength refocuses attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. To the downside, impulsive weakness did result in a temporary breach of the bear trigger - this makes the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 the area of downside interest. E-mini S&P prices recovered well Friday, meaning the bulk of the bounce off the NFP low is holding firm, keeping the underlying uptrend intact for now. The index holds above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6351.18. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6231.77, has held as support - and will be important on any intraday declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.

• In China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 12.419 pts or +0.34% at 3647.547 and the HANG SENG ended 47.99 pts higher or +0.19% at 24906.81.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 82.72 pts or -0.34% at 24079.73, FTSE 100 higher by 21.51 pts or +0.24% at 9117.02, CAC 40 down 19.97 pts or -0.26% at 7723.03 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 9.98 pts or -0.19% at 5337.76.
• Dow Jones mini up 81 pts or +0.18% at 44360, S&P 500 mini up 1 pts or +0.02% at 6414.25, NASDAQ mini down 16.5 pts or -0.07% at 23697.