COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Breach Bear Trigger and Key Support
WTI futures have pulled back from their recent highs. Yesterday's sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal. A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh cycle high this week, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3909.4, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3715.0, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
- WTI Crude up $0.84 or +1.39% at $61.29
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.7% at $3.417
- Gold spot up $8.53 or +0.22% at $3865.26
- Copper up $5.9 or +1.19% at $500.75
- Silver up $0.43 or +0.92% at $47.431
- Platinum up $9.08 or +0.58% at $1585.82
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
UK FISCAL: Reeves Claims "UK Economy Is Not Broken" As 26 Nov Budget Confirmed
In a video clip posted to X announcing the date of the budget (26 Nov), Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves claims "Britain's economy isn't broken, but I do know that it's not working well enough for working people. Bills are too high and you feel that you're putting in but you're getting less out."
- Reeves: "...But there are still challenges. The cost of living pressures I know are still very real. We need to bring inflation and borrowing costs down. We do that by keeping a tight grip on day-to-day spending and by enforcing my non-negotiatble fiscal rules."
- Reeves: "Renewal is our mission, and growth is our challenge. Investment and reform are our tools..."
- Politically, the chancellor and wider gov't remain in a very difficult position. It faces an increasingly sceptical gilt market, a decades-high tax burden that risks deterring investment, manifesto pledges not to raise income tax, VAT or employee National Insurance contributions, and a sizeable wing of the parliamentary Labour party fully opposed to any further gov't spending cuts.
BONDS: Gilt/Bund 10-Year Spread Set For Highest Close Since Early June
The 10-Year gilt/Bund spread is on track for the highest close seen since June, last 203.4bp. The next level of upside interest comes in at the June 6 close (206.8bp). Fiscal risks in the UK have returned to the fore in recent weeks, driving spread widening.
Fig. 1: UK/Germany 10-Year Yield Spread (bp)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD 2bn at 1.1680/1.1700 (a little far).
EURUSD 2.11bn at 1.1600 (thu).
EURUSD 2.05bn at 1.1600 (fri).
AUDUSD 1.08bn at 0.6500 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.1600 (942mln), 1.1625 (524mln), 1.1650 (746mln), 1.1680 (948mln), 1.1700 (1.06bn).
- GBPUSD: 1.3350 (326mln).
- USDJPY: 148.00 (624mln), 148.50 (566mln), 149.00 (508mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6475 (570mln).
- USDZAR: 17.8500 (380mln).
