COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Approaching Initial Support at $58.29, Apr 29 Low
A medium-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest move down reinforces this theme, signalling the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. The correction allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. A clear resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at $58.29, the Apr 29 low. Resistance to watch is $65.38, the 50-day EMA. Gold is unchanged and the yellow metal continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend needle points north and the latest move down appears corrective. The retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3547.9, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 3239.5, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $1.07 or -1.77% at $59.36
- Natural Gas up $0 or +0.03% at $3.38
- Gold spot down $33.84 or -1.02% at $3284.51
- Copper down $20.8 or -4.27% at $464.8
- Silver down $0.54 or -1.64% at $32.361
- Platinum down $10.31 or -1.05% at $967.99
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FRANCE: Le Pen Found Guilty Of Embezzelement
Wires reporting that far-right Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally) figurehead Marine Le Pen, along with eight RN MEPs, has been found guilty of embezzlement in relation to jobs for party officials at the European Parliament. Le Monde reports "The sentences will be detailed individually, but are not yet known." As noted a short time ago (see 'FRANCE: Le Pen Embezzelement Verdict Underway', 0935BST), focus will now turn to whether the court imposes a ban on Le Pen running for office as part of her sentence. This ruling would upend the 2027 presidential election, where Le Pen is the current frontrunner.
OAT: Uncertainty Set To Prevail, Even With Le Pen Found Guilty
No real initial reaction in OATS (both outright and in spread vs. Bunds) as Le Pen is found guilty in the RN embezzlement case.
- Political uncertainty and fiscal risks are set to remain evident in the near term, irrespective of who leads the RN through the next election cycle.
- Our political risk team previously noted that an appeal would be immediate in the event of a guilty verdict, but even this would not remove the bar.
- A recent Constitutional Court ruling declared that an individual can be declared ineligible to run for office even if they have launched an appeal and during that process, they would remain ineligible. There is some language in the wording of the ruling, regarding judges balancing the ineligibility ruling with the 'freedom of voters'.
- In any case this process likely results in a furious political storm, but the outcome is as yet unclear.
EFSF ISSUANCE: Syndication: 5-year May-30: Spread set
- Final Spread: MS+30bps (guidance was MS+32bps area)
- Size: EUR benchmark
- Books in excess of E13.5bln (ex JLM interest)
- Maturity: 07-May-2030
- Settlement: 07-Apr-2025 (T+5)
- Coupon: Long first to 07-May-2026
- Bookrunners: CITI/CACIB(DM/B&D)/SG
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAT6
- Timing: Books to close at 10:30BST / 11:30CET, today’s business
