COMMODITIES: WTI Falls, Copper Pierces Resistance At 50-Day EMA
Jan-08 19:47
- Crude has extended its losses today after EIA crude stock changes came as expected and product inventories saw large builds.
- WTI Feb 25 is down by 1.3% at $73.3/bbl.
- The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish, despite today’s correction, with sights on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA, at $71.32.
- Spot gold has edged up by 0.3% to $2,657/oz, albeit it is off the session highs of $2,670, which marked the highest level for the yellow metal since Dec 13.
- A bear threat in gold remains present despite the latest recovery. However, a strong climb would signal scope for a move towards resistance at $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high.
- Meanwhile, copper has rallied by a further 1.7% to $427/lb, taking the red metal to its highest level since Dec 12.
- The move comes as Codelco announced a $1.5bn USD-bond issuance to help fund record investments. It will offer two benchmark-size tranches of about $750mn each, one maturing in 10 years and the other in 30 years, according to people familiar with the matter.
- A bearish trend condition in copper futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective.
- However, price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at $420.33, exposing key short-term resistance at $433.50, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.
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COMMODITIES: Crude, Gold Rally Amid Middle-East Uncertainty, China Optimism
Dec-09 19:43
- WTI has traded higher today, boosted by China’s plan to loosen monetary policy, coupled with increased Middle East uncertainty.
- WTI Jan 25 is up by 1.8% at $68.4/bbl.
- The toppling of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad's regime at the weekend has added a level of Middle East geopolitical uncertainty for oil markets on Monday.
- Despite today’s gains, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present, and a reversal lower would focus attention on $65.74, the Oct 1 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has risen by 1.0% to $2,660/oz, buoyed by the boost to risk sentiment from the China stimulus headlines.
- China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025 to boost domestic demand and stabilise both property and stock markets, according to a Political Bureau meeting.
- For gold, trend conditions remain bullish, with resistance to watch at $2,721.4, the Nov 25 high.
- Silver is outperforming today and is up by 2.8% at $31.8/oz, bringing the gold-silver ratio down briefly to its lowest since Oct 31.
- For silver a clear break of the 50-day EMA would open $33.125, the Nov 1 high.
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Communication, Financial Sectors Underperform
Dec-09 19:36
- Major averages held weaker levels late Monday, near session lows after reversing modest gains following the lower than expected Wholesale Trade sales data (-0.1% vs. 0.2% est; prior up revised to 0.5% from 0.3%, however). Currently, the DJIA trades down 92.59 points (-0.21%) at 44550.28, S&P E-Minis down 27.25 points (-0.45%) at 6072, Nasdaq down 107 points (-0.5%) at 19752.76.
- Communication Services and Financial sectors underperformed in the second half, leading laggers in the Communication sector included Comcast -9.72% after the CEO announced a 100k subscriber drop at a UBS investor event this morning, Omnicom Group -8.98% after announcing $13B deal to merge with Interpublic (IPG), while Charter Communications -7.23% on lackluster broadband subscriber numbers.
- Insurance and services companies weighed on the Financial sector: MetLife -3.75%, Harford and Travelers both -3.20% while Prudential declined 2.85%.
- Of interest, China officials announced they were investigating Nvidia over alleged anti-monopoly violations, the chip stock trading down 2.39% in late trade.
- Conversely, Health Care and Energy sectors led gainers in late trade, pharmaceuticals and service providers buoyed the Health Care sector: Charles River Labs +5.05%, Molina and Centene both +4.1% while Elevance Health gained 3.71%.
- Following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria this weekend, the power vacuum lending to increased uncertainty in the Middle East with crude prices rising (WTI +1.26 at 68.46). That in turn supported oil and gas shares with APA +4.84%, Occidental Petroleum +3.208%, Valero +2.86%.
- Meanwhile some standout earnings announcements this week include Toll Brothers and Oracle after today's close. AutoZone Inc kicks off Tuesday morning followed by GameStop after the close. Midweek on: Macy's, Adobe, Costco and Broadcom.
USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South
Dec-09 19:30
- RES 4: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: 155.89/156.75 High Nov 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 154.49 High Nov 26
- RES 1: 151.20/151.75 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 150.98 @ 16:19 GMT Dec 09
- SUP 1: 148.65 Low Dec 03
- SUP 2: 148.17 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg
- SUP 3: 147.35 Low Oct 8
- SUP 4: 147.33 3.0% 10-dma envelope
A bear cycle remains in USDJPY intact. The pair traded to a fresh short-term trend low on Dec 3, highlighting a resumption of the retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. Sights are on 148.17, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, Nov 15 high. Initial firm resistance is 151.75, the 20-day EMA.
